Stephen F. Austin vs. Northwestern State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Stephen F. Austin0-1
▸
Northwestern State0-2
Final
Harry Turpin Stadium
STEPTeam statsNORT
454Total yards208
268Pass124
186Rush84
18First downs11
8-203rd down2-14
1Turnovers6
35:00Possession25:00
- Q4 14:37NORTJaren Mitchell 20 Yd pass from Quaterius Hawkins (Brett Money Kick)41–7
- Q3 8:29STEPAnthony Williams 53 Yd pass from Brian Maurer (Jacob Hand Kick)41–0
- Q2 0:23STEPChris Campos 30 Yd Field Goal 34–0
- Q2 2:33STEPChris Campos 23 Yd Field Goal 31–0
- Q2 10:38STEPAnthony Williams 50 Yd pass from Brian Maurer (Chris Campos Kick)28–0
- Q1 8:49STEPKylon Harris 8 Yd pass from Brian Maurer (Chris Campos Kick)21–0
- Q1 10:19STEPAmad Murray 25 Yd Fumble Return (Chris Campos Kick)14–0
- Q1 12:14STEPBrian Maurer 4 Yd Run (Chris Campos Kick)7–0
Kickoff161 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
NORT (top)STEP (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NORT 0%
Stephen F. Austin
- PassBrian Maurer 12/22, 199 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushJerrell Wimbley 16 CAR, 115 YDS
- RecAnthony Williams Jr. 2 REC, 103 YDS, 2 TD
Northwestern State
- PassQuaterius Hawkins 7/19, 62 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushScooter Adams 9 CAR, 65 YDS
- RecJaren Mitchell 3 REC, 35 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSTEP up 41 entering the 4th quarter. Across 196 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
STEP went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Stephen F. Austin vs. Northwestern State?
Stephen F. Austin 41, Northwestern State 7.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked NORT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
STEP
NORT
30%
Success rate
27%
0.48
EPA / pass
-0.27
-0.03
EPA / rush
-0.07
26%
Early-down success
31%
33%
Pass success
24%
27%
Rush success
31%
9%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
6%
16%
Stuffed rush rate
13%
45%
Pass rate
52%
7.3
Avg 3rd-down distance
5.9
STEP
7.3 yards to go on 3rd down
80 scrimmage snaps
NORT
5.9 yards to go on 3rd down
66 scrimmage snaps
| STEP | NORT | |
|---|---|---|
| 454 | Total yards | 208 |
| 268 | Passing yards | 124 |
| 186 | Rushing yards | 84 |
| 18 | First downs | 11 |
| 8-20 | 3rd down | 2-14 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 17/35 | Comp/Att | 13/30 |
| 7.7 | Yards per pass | 4.1 |
| 4.3 | Yards per rush | 2.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 6 |
| 5-35 | Penalties | 2-10 |
| 35:00 | Possession | 25:00 |
STEP
9/10 with the model
−0.9 pts · −0.0% win prob
NORT
7/9 with the model
−0.2 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q2 11:37 STEP field goal on 4th & 1 at NORT 22. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.86 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishSTEP 6/15 scoring drives← own end zone →NORT 2/17 scoring drives
NORTEND5 pl, 17 yds· own 25Q0
STEPTD6 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
NORTTD5 pl, -4 yds· own 29Q1
NORTFUM2 pl, -12 yds· own 26Q1
STEPTD2 pl, 14 yds· opp 14Q1
NORTINT8 pl, 62 yds· own 29Q1
STEPPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 9Q1
NORTPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· opp 49Q1
STEPPUNT5 pl, 20 yds· own 14Q1
NORTPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 15Q1
STEPMISS7 pl, 23 yds· opp 45Q2
NORTPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 22Q2
STEPTD1 pl, 50 yds· midfieldQ2
NORTPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 22Q2
STEPFG11 pl, 39 yds· opp 45Q2
NORTINT3 pl, 1 yds· own 11Q2
STEPFG9 pl, 22 yds· opp 35Q2
NORTEND3 pl, 17 yds· own 25Q2
NORTDOWNS6 pl, 49 yds· own 19Q3
STEPINT6 pl, 14 yds· own 32Q3
NORTFUM3 pl, -5 yds· opp 42Q3
STEPTD1 pl, 53 yds· own 47Q3
NORTPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 16Q3
STEPMISS8 pl, 29 yds· opp 45Q3
NORTPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 20Q3
STEPDOWNS4 pl, 9 yds· own 44Q3
NORTTD7 pl, 53 yds· own 47Q3
STEPPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q4
NORTINT2 pl, 0 yds· own 24Q4
STEPDOWNS10 pl, 60 yds· own 31Q4
NORTPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 9Q4
STEPUncateg6 pl, 12 yds· own 41Q4
- Q4 14:37NORTJaren Mitchell 20 Yd pass from Quaterius Hawkins (Brett Money Kick)41–7
- Q3 8:29STEPAnthony Williams 53 Yd pass from Brian Maurer (Jacob Hand Kick)41–0
- Q2 0:23STEPChris Campos 30 Yd Field Goal 34–0
- Q2 2:33STEPChris Campos 23 Yd Field Goal 31–0
- Q2 10:38STEPAnthony Williams 50 Yd pass from Brian Maurer (Chris Campos Kick)28–0
- Q1 8:49STEPKylon Harris 8 Yd pass from Brian Maurer (Chris Campos Kick)21–0
- Q1 10:19STEPAmad Murray 25 Yd Fumble Return (Chris Campos Kick)14–0
- Q1 12:14STEPBrian Maurer 4 Yd Run (Chris Campos Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →