Washington vs. Michigan State: Final Score, Recap & Advanced Stats

Washington2-0

▸

Michigan State2-0

Final

Spartan Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
WASH	14	21	6	0	41
MSU	0	0	0	7	7

WASHTeam statsMSU

713Total yards261

536Pass208

177Rush53

28First downs15

3-103rd down6-16

1Turnovers1

35:32Possession24:28

Q4 5:48MSUKatin Houser 4 Yd Run (Jonathan Kim Kick)41–7
Q3 3:45WASHGrady Gross 29 Yd Field Goal 41–0
Q3 10:43WASHGrady Gross 22 Yd Field Goal 38–0
Q2 0:06WASHJack Westover 7 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)35–0
Q2 6:49WASHJack Westover 13 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)28–0
Q2 10:44WASHJa'Lynn Polk 30 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)21–0
Q1 1:14WASHJack Westover 5 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)14–0
Q1 9:51WASHGermie Bernard 1 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)7–0

How the model called it

Model line

WASH −7.5

market WASH −15

Biggest swing

WASH +14%

Q1 9:51

Against the number

WASH covered

line WASH −15

MSU favored ↑50%WASH favored ↓

GridpexWASH 100%

Closing line

WASH −15

Closing total

57.5

Model line

WASH −7.5

Actual result

WASH 41 – 7 MSU

Washington

PassMichael Penix Jr. 27/35, 473 YDS, 4 TD
RushTybo Rogers 15 CAR, 74 YDS
RecRome Odunze 8 REC, 180 YDS

Michigan State

PassNoah Kim 12/31, 136 YDS, 1 INT
RushNathan Carter 17 CAR, 48 YDS
RecChristian Fitzpatrick 1 REC, 61 YDS

26.1sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

138

Points / snap

0.35

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

WASH up 41 entering the 4th quarter. Across 195 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

WASH went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WClemson vs Florida Atlantic48-14 WUCF vs Villanova48-14 WStephen F. Austin vs Northwestern State41-7 WDuke vs UConn41-7 WFresno State vs Kent State56-10

Q1 9:51WASH +14%
Germie Bernard run for 1 yd for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)
Q1 1:14WASH +10%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jack Westover for 5 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)

FAQ

What was the final score of Washington vs. Michigan State?

Washington 41, Michigan State 7.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (WASH) was correct.

WASH

MSU

55%

Success rate

31%

0.76

EPA / pass

-0.09

0.09

EPA / rush

-0.00

61%

Early-down success

33%

61%

Pass success

26%

49%

Rush success

40%

23%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

21%

Stuffed rush rate

20%

55%

Pass rate

61%

7.6

Avg 3rd-down distance

8.1

WASH

7.6 yards to go on 3rd down

74 scrimmage snaps

MSU

8.1 yards to go on 3rd down

64 scrimmage snaps

WASH		MSU
713	Total yards	261
536	Passing yards	208
177	Rushing yards	53
28	First downs	15
3-10	3rd down	6-16
1-2	4th down	0-1
29/39	Comp/Att	14/35
13.7	Yards per pass	5.9
5.4	Yards per rush	2.0
1	Turnovers	1
11-110	Penalties	11-83
35:32	Possession	24:28

Model prediction

how the number is built

Power rating (Elo)

MSU 1575

WASH 1822

Projected spread

MSU +7.5

incl. home edge

Model pick

WASH

68% to win

Market spread

MSU +15

sportsbook line

Model vs market

MSU

7.5 pts apart

Win prob: model / mkt

32%

MSU · market 16%

Our model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MSU Elo 1575, WASH Elo 1822 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MSU +7.5 (32% to win) — 7.5 points clear of MSU's market line of +15. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.

Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).

Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation

Season form — 2023

nationally ranked

WASH2023 season · national rank shownMSU

462.113th

Total yards / game

285.8128th

7.08th

Yards / play

4.6128th

343.72nd

Passing yards / game

197.299th

118.4106th

Rushing yards / game

88.7128th

43.7%30th

3rd down %

30.4%124th

406.798th

Yards allowed / game

389.781st

38.8%69th

3rd down % allowed

34.6%32nd

067th

Turnover margin

-6112th

7.5127th

Penalties / game

6.8106th

The matchup, in context

series history + adjusted profiles

Opponent-adjusted profile2023

WASH		MSU
+24.4 (#9)	CORE overall	-14.5 (#108)
+16 / -8	offense / defense	-10 / +4
3.33	points / drive	0.94
2.09	allowed / drive	2.40
19%	three-and-outs	38%
+17	pass over expected	+4

Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.

CORE ratings →Drive efficiency →Play-calling →

Pro

Key matchups

The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.

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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →

WASHTeam statsMSU

Scoring plays

How the model called it

Win probability

How the line closed

Leaders

Tempo

This exact spot, historically

Fourth downs

What decided it

FAQ

What was the final score of Washington vs. Michigan State?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Situational splits

Team stats

Fourth downs

Drive chart

Scoring plays

Model prediction

Season form — 2023

The matchup, in context

Key matchups

Washington vs. Michigan State: Final Score & Recap

WASHTeam statsMSU

How the model called it

What was the final score of Washington vs. Michigan State?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Key matchups