Marshall vs. North Texas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MRSHTeam statsUNT
- Q4 2:35UNTEric Jenkins 52 Yd Interception Return (Trevor Moore Kick)21–38
- Q4 4:26UNTTrevor Moore 31 Yd Field Goal 21–31
- Q3 3:15UNTJeffrey Wilson 72 Yd Run (Trevor Moore Kick)21–28
- Q3 4:00MRSHRyan Yurachek 1 Yd pass from Chase Litton (Amoreto Curraj Kick)21–21
- Q3 6:31UNTTyler Wilson 11 Yd pass from Mason Fine (Trevor Moore Kick)14–21
- Q3 14:47MRSHKeion Davis 99 Yd Kickoff Return (Amoreto Curraj Kick)14–14
- Q2 10:33UNTMason Fine 8 Yd Run (Trevor Moore Kick)7–14
- Q1 1:03MRSHChase Litton 6 Yd Run (Amoreto Curraj Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:22UNTJeffrey Wilson 4 Yd Run (Trevor Moore Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassChase Litton 20/42, 258 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushKeion Davis 14 CAR, 33 YDS
- RecMichael Clark 8 REC, 122 YDS
- PassMason Fine 18/28, 206 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJeff Wilson Jr. 26 CAR, 188 YDS, 2 TD
- RecThaddeous Thompson 5 REC, 68 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNT up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 3:15UNT +31%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 72 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)
- Q3 6:31UNT +31%
Mason Fine pass complete to Tyler Wilson for 11 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)
- Q3 4:00MRSH +28%
Chase Litton pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 1 yd for a TD, (Amoreto Curraj KICK)
- Q2 10:33UNT +22%
Mason Fine run for 8 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)
- Q3 14:47MRSH +18%
Eric Keena kickoff for 68 yds, Keion Davis return for 99 yds for a TD, (Amoreto Curraj KICK)
- Q1 1:03MRSH +18%
Chase Litton run for 6 yds for a TD, (Amoreto Curraj KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Marshall vs. North Texas?
Marshall 21, North Texas 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MRSH, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MRSH | UNT | |
|---|---|---|
| 271 | Total yards | 458 |
| 258 | Passing yards | 206 |
| 13 | Rushing yards | 252 |
| 16 | First downs | 23 |
| 8-19 | 3rd down | 8-17 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 20/42 | Comp/Att | 18/28 |
| 6.1 | Yards per pass | 7.4 |
| 0.5 | Yards per rush | 4.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 6-70 | Penalties | 10-78 |
| 23:53 | Possession | 36:07 |
Costliest call
Q2 6:19 MRSH punt on 4th & 2 at UNT 41. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.44 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:35UNTEric Jenkins 52 Yd Interception Return (Trevor Moore Kick)21–38
- Q4 4:26UNTTrevor Moore 31 Yd Field Goal 21–31
- Q3 3:15UNTJeffrey Wilson 72 Yd Run (Trevor Moore Kick)21–28
- Q3 4:00MRSHRyan Yurachek 1 Yd pass from Chase Litton (Amoreto Curraj Kick)21–21
- Q3 6:31UNTTyler Wilson 11 Yd pass from Mason Fine (Trevor Moore Kick)14–21
- Q3 14:47MRSHKeion Davis 99 Yd Kickoff Return (Amoreto Curraj Kick)14–14
- Q2 10:33UNTMason Fine 8 Yd Run (Trevor Moore Kick)7–14
- Q1 1:03MRSHChase Litton 6 Yd Run (Amoreto Curraj Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:22UNTJeffrey Wilson 4 Yd Run (Trevor Moore Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNT Elo 1139, MRSH Elo 1458 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNT +10.4 (26% to win) — 2.1 points clear of UNT's market line of +12.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#39 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #57 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds.
The 2016 upset archive →| MRSH | UNT | |
|---|---|---|
| -25.1 (#124) | CORE overall | -7.0 (#92) |
| -12 / +13 | offense / defense | -9 / -2 |
| 1.64 | points / drive | 1.83 |
| 3.14 | allowed / drive | 2.61 |
| 33% | three-and-outs | 40% |
| +7 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →