Akron vs. Buffalo: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
AKRTeam statsBUF
- Q4 4:50BUFJordan Johnson 39 Yd Run (Adam Mitcheson Kick)20–41
- Q4 9:34BUFMason Schreck 14 Yd pass from Tyree Jackson (Adam Mitcheson Kick)20–34
- Q4 11:29AKRJoJo Natson 33 Yd pass from Thomas Woodson (Tom O'Leary Kick)20–27
- Q4 13:42BUFTyree Jackson 38 Yd Run (Adam Mitcheson Kick)13–27
- Q3 10:33AKRTom O'Leary 29 Yd Field Goal 13–20
- Q2 0:00BUFAdam Mitcheson 28 Yd Field Goal 10–20
- Q2 0:32AKRJoJo Natson 79 Yd Punt Return (Tom O'Leary Kick)10–17
- Q2 4:18BUFJordan Johnson 61 Yd Run (Adam Mitcheson Kick)3–17
- Q2 6:22BUFTyree Jackson 10 Yd Run (Adam Mitcheson Kick)3–10
- Q1 3:04BUFAdam Mitcheson 23 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 6:44AKRTom O'Leary 34 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassThomas Woodson 18/42, 178 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushVan Edwards Jr. 14 CAR, 56 YDS
- RecJoJo Natson 5 REC, 53 YDS, 1 TD
- PassTyree Jackson 7/21, 140 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJordan Johnson 24 CAR, 282 YDS, 2 TD
- RecMarcus McGill 3 REC, 82 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBUF up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 9:34BUF +28%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 14 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)
- Q2 6:22BUF +23%
Tyree Jackson run for 10 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)
- Q2 4:18BUF +21%
Jordan Johnson run for 61 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)
- Q4 11:29AKR +21%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to JoJo Natson for 33 yds for a TD, (Tom O'Leary KICK)
- Q2 0:32AKR +20%
Kyle Deween punt for 44 yds, JoJo Natson returns for 79 yds for a TD, (Tom O'Leary KICK)
- Q4 13:42BUF +20%
Tyree Jackson run for 38 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Akron vs. Buffalo?
Akron 20, Buffalo 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked AKR, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| AKR | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 306 | Total yards | 518 |
| 178 | Passing yards | 140 |
| 128 | Rushing yards | 378 |
| 18 | First downs | 19 |
| 7-21 | 3rd down | 1-10 |
| 1-5 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 18/42 | Comp/Att | 7/21 |
| 4.2 | Yards per pass | 6.7 |
| 3.0 | Yards per rush | 9.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-40 | Penalties | 6-66 |
| 33:27 | Possession | 26:33 |
Costliest call
Q3 7:55 AKR punt on 4th & 3 at BUF 42. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.08 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:50BUFJordan Johnson 39 Yd Run (Adam Mitcheson Kick)20–41
- Q4 9:34BUFMason Schreck 14 Yd pass from Tyree Jackson (Adam Mitcheson Kick)20–34
- Q4 11:29AKRJoJo Natson 33 Yd pass from Thomas Woodson (Tom O'Leary Kick)20–27
- Q4 13:42BUFTyree Jackson 38 Yd Run (Adam Mitcheson Kick)13–27
- Q3 10:33AKRTom O'Leary 29 Yd Field Goal 13–20
- Q2 0:00BUFAdam Mitcheson 28 Yd Field Goal 10–20
- Q2 0:32AKRJoJo Natson 79 Yd Punt Return (Tom O'Leary Kick)10–17
- Q2 4:18BUFJordan Johnson 61 Yd Run (Adam Mitcheson Kick)3–17
- Q2 6:22BUFTyree Jackson 10 Yd Run (Adam Mitcheson Kick)3–10
- Q1 3:04BUFAdam Mitcheson 23 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 6:44AKRTom O'Leary 34 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BUF Elo 1055, AKR Elo 1371 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BUF +10.2 (26% to win) — 7.8 points clear of BUF's market line of +18. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#19 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #30 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds.
The 2016 upset archive →Buffalo leads 13–12 · 36% have been one-possession games
| AKR | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| -13.1 (#102) | CORE overall | -20.2 (#117) |
| -5 / +8 | offense / defense | -12 / +8 |
| 1.95 | points / drive | 1.36 |
| 2.60 | allowed / drive | 2.65 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| +5 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →