Ohio State vs. Oregon: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
OSUTeam statsORE
- Q4 10:00ORETraeshon Holden 27 Yd pass from Dillon Gabriel (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)41–21
- Q3 2:19OSUTreVeyon Henderson 8 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)41–15
- Q3 8:55ORENoah Whittington 2 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)34–15
- Q2 0:00ORETraeshon Holden 5 Yd pass from Dillon Gabriel (Dillon Gabriel Pass to Justius Lowe for Two-Point Conversion)34–8
- Q2 2:59OSUJayden Fielding 36 Yd Field Goal 34–0
- Q2 8:47OSUTreVeyon Henderson 66 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)31–0
- Q2 10:28OSUJeremiah Smith 43 Yd pass from Will Howard (Jayden Fielding Kick)24–0
- Q2 14:50OSUJayden Fielding 46 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q1 7:31OSUEmeka Egbuka 42 Yd pass from Will Howard (Jayden Fielding Kick)14–0
- Q1 14:00OSUJeremiah Smith 45 Yd pass from Will Howard (Jayden Fielding Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassWill Howard 17/26, 319 YDS, 3 TD
- RushTreVeyon Henderson 8 CAR, 94 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJeremiah Smith 7 REC, 187 YDS, 2 TD
- PassDillon Gabriel 29/41, 299 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJordan James 7 CAR, 14 YDS
- RecTraeshon Holden 7 REC, 116 YDS, 2 TD
FAQ
What was the final score of Ohio State vs. Oregon?
Ohio State 41, Oregon 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (OSU) was correct.
| OSU | ORE | |
|---|---|---|
| 500 | Total yards | 276 |
| 319 | Passing yards | 299 |
| 181 | Rushing yards | -23 |
| 20 | First downs | 15 |
| 4-11 | 3rd down | 8-19 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 17/26 | Comp/Att | 29/42 |
| 12.3 | Yards per pass | 7.1 |
| 5.8 | Yards per rush | -0.8 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 2-14 | Penalties | 3-13 |
| 29:05 | Possession | 30:55 |
- Q4 10:00ORETraeshon Holden 27 Yd pass from Dillon Gabriel (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)41–21
- Q3 2:19OSUTreVeyon Henderson 8 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)41–15
- Q3 8:55ORENoah Whittington 2 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)34–15
- Q2 0:00ORETraeshon Holden 5 Yd pass from Dillon Gabriel (Dillon Gabriel Pass to Justius Lowe for Two-Point Conversion)34–8
- Q2 2:59OSUJayden Fielding 36 Yd Field Goal 34–0
- Q2 8:47OSUTreVeyon Henderson 66 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)31–0
- Q2 10:28OSUJeremiah Smith 43 Yd pass from Will Howard (Jayden Fielding Kick)24–0
- Q2 14:50OSUJayden Fielding 46 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q1 7:31OSUEmeka Egbuka 42 Yd pass from Will Howard (Jayden Fielding Kick)14–0
- Q1 14:00OSUJeremiah Smith 45 Yd pass from Will Howard (Jayden Fielding Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ORE Elo 2075, OSU Elo 2147 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects ORE +2.9 (43% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesOhio State leads 10–2 · 25% have been one-possession games
| OSU | ORE | |
|---|---|---|
| +43.5 (#1) | CORE overall | +23.9 (#7) |
| +25 / -19 | offense / defense | +17 / -7 |
| 3.33 | points / drive | 3.31 |
| 0.97 | allowed / drive | 1.76 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| +5 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →