Western Kentucky vs. Troy: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WKUTeam statsTROY
- Q4 2:29WKUEaston Messer 12 Yd pass from Austin Reed (Lucas Carneiro Kick)24–27
- Q4 5:37TROYKimani Vidal 11 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)17–27
- Q4 14:07WKULucas Carneiro 24 Yd Field Goal 17–20
- Q3 1:55TROYScott Taylor Renfroe 26 Yd Field Goal 14–20
- Q3 7:54WKUMalachi Corley 22 Yd pass from Austin Reed (Lucas Carneiro Kick)14–17
- Q3 11:37TROYKimani Vidal 19 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)7–17
- Q2 0:00TROYChris Lewis 40 Yd pass from Gunnar Watson (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)7–10
- Q2 6:09TROYScott Taylor Renfroe 25 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 1:35WKUK.D. Hutchinson 3 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- TROY lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 16% explosive on a 39% success rate
- PassAustin Reed 24/40, 275 YDS, 2 TD
- RushElijah Young 5 CAR, 9 YDS
- RecMalachi Corley 9 REC, 107 YDS, 1 TD
- PassGunnar Watson 22/35, 349 YDS, 1 TD
- RushKimani Vidal 27 CAR, 156 YDS, 2 TD
- RecChris Lewis 3 REC, 101 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTROY up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,660 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 2:29WKU +30%
Austin Reed pass complete to Easton Messer for 12 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
- Q2 0:00TROY +24%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 40 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
- Q4 2:29TROY +24%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete
- Q4 5:37TROY +23%
Kimani Vidal run for 11 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
- Q3 7:54WKU +21%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 22 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
- Q1 1:35WKU +20%
K.D. Hutchinson 3 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Western Kentucky vs. Troy?
Western Kentucky 24, Troy 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TROY) was correct.
| WKU | TROY | |
|---|---|---|
| 288 | Total yards | 521 |
| 275 | Passing yards | 349 |
| 13 | Rushing yards | 172 |
| 16 | First downs | 24 |
| 2-10 | 3rd down | 10-19 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 24/40 | Comp/Att | 22/35 |
| 6.9 | Yards per pass | 10.0 |
| 1.0 | Yards per rush | 3.7 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 3-21 | Penalties | 7-71 |
| 21:01 | Possession | 38:59 |
Costliest call
Q4 11:52 TROY punt on 4th & 1 at TROY 19. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.03 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:29WKUEaston Messer 12 Yd pass from Austin Reed (Lucas Carneiro Kick)24–27
- Q4 5:37TROYKimani Vidal 11 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)17–27
- Q4 14:07WKULucas Carneiro 24 Yd Field Goal 17–20
- Q3 1:55TROYScott Taylor Renfroe 26 Yd Field Goal 14–20
- Q3 7:54WKUMalachi Corley 22 Yd pass from Austin Reed (Lucas Carneiro Kick)14–17
- Q3 11:37TROYKimani Vidal 19 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)7–17
- Q2 0:00TROYChris Lewis 40 Yd pass from Gunnar Watson (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)7–10
- Q2 6:09TROYScott Taylor Renfroe 25 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 1:35WKUK.D. Hutchinson 3 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TROY Elo 1503, WKU Elo 1507 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TROY -2.2 (57% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesTroy leads 7–2 · Troy has won 3 straight · 56% have been one-possession games
| WKU | TROY | |
|---|---|---|
| -4.6 (#85) | CORE overall | +10.8 (#31) |
| +0 / +5 | offense / defense | -0 / -11 |
| 2.17 | points / drive | 2.40 |
| 2.13 | allowed / drive | 1.38 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +12 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →