Rice vs. Tulsa: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
RICETeam statsTLSA
- Q4 2:58RICEDean Connors 10 Yd Run (Tim Horn Kick)42–10
- Q3 0:23RICEDean Connors 2 Yd Run (Tim Horn Kick)35–10
- Q3 9:47RICEJT Daniels 8 Yd Run (Tim Horn Kick)28–10
- Q2 0:33RICELandon Ransom-Goelz 17 Yd pass from JT Daniels (Tim Horn Kick)21–10
- Q2 1:14TLSAKamdyn Benjamin 30 Yd pass from Cardell Williams (Chase Meyer Kick)14–10
- Q2 5:45TLSAChase Meyer 45 Yd Field Goal 14–3
- Q1 2:42RICELuke McCaffrey 21 Yd pass from JT Daniels (Tim Horn Kick)14–0
- Q1 12:37RICEDean Connors 54 Yd Run (Tim Horn Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassJT Daniels 24/37, 342 YDS, 2 TD
- RushDean Connors 9 CAR, 120 YDS, 3 TD
- RecLuke McCaffrey 6 REC, 99 YDS, 1 TD
- PassCardell Williams 7/14, 101 YDS, 1 TD
- RushBraylon Braxton 12 CAR, 89 YDS
- RecKamdyn Benjamin 3 REC, 48 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsRICE up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 583 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 1:14TLSA +23%
Cardell Williams pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 30 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)
- Q2 0:33RICE +23%
JT Daniels pass complete to Landon Ransom-Goelz for 17 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)
- Q1 2:42RICE +21%
JT Daniels pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 21 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)
- Q1 12:37RICE +17%
Dean Connors run for 54 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)
- Q3 9:47RICE +14%
JT Daniels run for 8 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)
- Q2 5:45TLSA +8%
Chase Meyer 45 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Rice vs. Tulsa?
Rice 42, Tulsa 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TLSA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| RICE | TLSA | |
|---|---|---|
| 512 | Total yards | 296 |
| 342 | Passing yards | 138 |
| 170 | Rushing yards | 158 |
| 24 | First downs | 14 |
| 7-13 | 3rd down | 4-14 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 24/37 | Comp/Att | 11/22 |
| 9.2 | Yards per pass | 6.3 |
| 5.5 | Yards per rush | 3.8 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 2-30 | Penalties | 3-25 |
| 33:48 | Possession | 26:12 |
Costliest call
Q2 9:59 TLSA punt on 4th & 14 at RICE 38. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.41 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:58RICEDean Connors 10 Yd Run (Tim Horn Kick)42–10
- Q3 0:23RICEDean Connors 2 Yd Run (Tim Horn Kick)35–10
- Q3 9:47RICEJT Daniels 8 Yd Run (Tim Horn Kick)28–10
- Q2 0:33RICELandon Ransom-Goelz 17 Yd pass from JT Daniels (Tim Horn Kick)21–10
- Q2 1:14TLSAKamdyn Benjamin 30 Yd pass from Cardell Williams (Chase Meyer Kick)14–10
- Q2 5:45TLSAChase Meyer 45 Yd Field Goal 14–3
- Q1 2:42RICELuke McCaffrey 21 Yd pass from JT Daniels (Tim Horn Kick)14–0
- Q1 12:37RICEDean Connors 54 Yd Run (Tim Horn Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TLSA Elo 1330, RICE Elo 1189 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TLSA -8 (71% to win) — 5.0 points clear of TLSA's market line of -3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#11 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #88 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds.
The 2023 upset archive →Tulsa leads 10–9–1 · Rice has won 2 straight · 40% have been one-possession games
| RICE | TLSA | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.0 (#89) | CORE overall | -17.5 (#118) |
| -1 / +5 | offense / defense | -6 / +12 |
| 2.13 | points / drive | 1.77 |
| 2.33 | allowed / drive | 3.02 |
| 33% | three-and-outs | 34% |
| +11 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →