#18JT Daniels

QB·Rice·2023

JT Daniels is a Dual-Threat QB for Rice. JT's 2023 season ranks in the 43th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 275 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So JT Daniels's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Passing

181/287 Comp/Att2443 Pass yards21 Pass TD7 INT63.1% Comp %

Rushing

-65 Rush yards1 Rush TD25 Carries-2.6 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs QB peers

Efficiency43
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency85
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)43th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency85th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.43 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.88 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Texas Southern.

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Texas	L10-37	23.2	14/26	149	1	2	17.2	-6	0	0.87
2	vsHouston	W43-41	-7.8	28/42	401	3	1	89.9	-7	0	0.78
3	vsTexas Southern	W59-7	—	11/17	255	4	0	97.0	0	0	0.88
4	@South Florida	L29-42	-6.6	27/40	432	3	0	85.2	-23	0	0.58
5	vsEast Carolina	W24-17	-12.8	18/32	232	2	1	56.9	-4	0	0.30
6	vsUConn	L31-38	-15.6	33/49	362	2	1	38.7	-18	0	0.41
8	@Tulsa	W42-10	-13.7	24/37	342	2	0	74.9	-1	1	0.50
9	vsTulane	L28-30	2.8	18/29	189	2	1	73.3	7	0	0.46
10	vsSMU	L31-36	10.1	8/15	81	2	1	19.4	-13	0	0.02

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

53.2%

Passing plays

88.3%

Rushing plays

5.4%

Standard downs

46.7%

Passing downs

68.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.39
Passing downs: 0.76
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.53 / 0.56

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).