Georgia Southern vs. Ball State: Final Score, Recap & Advanced Stats

Georgia Southern2-1

▸

Ball State1-2

Final

Scheumann Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
GASO	14	9	10	7	40
BALL	0	0	0	3	3

GASOTeam statsBALL

530Total yards197

363Pass160

167Rush37

25First downs10

4-143rd down3-15

0Turnovers2

30:41Possession29:19

Q4 7:15BALLJackson Courville 23 Yd Field Goal 40–3
Q4 13:42GASOAnthony Queeley 8 Yd pass from Davis Brin (Michael Lantz Kick)40–0
Q3 1:03GASOMichael Lantz 35 Yd Field Goal 33–0
Q3 8:47GASOKhaleb Hood 21 Yd pass from Davis Brin (Michael Lantz Kick)30–0
Q2 0:00GASOMichael Lantz 37 Yd Field Goal 23–0
Q2 6:36GASOMichael Lantz 26 Yd Field Goal 20–0
Q2 12:37GASOMichael Lantz 41 Yd Field Goal 17–0
Q1 8:47GASOKeaton Upshaw 9 Yd pass from Davis Brin (Michael Lantz Kick)14–0
Q1 11:51GASOEvan Lester Jr. 1 Yd pass from Davis Brin (Michael Lantz Kick)7–0

How the model called it

Model line

GASO −3.7

market GASO −6

Biggest swing

GASO +16%

Q1 11:51

Against the number

GASO covered

line GASO −6

BALL favored ↑50%GASO favored ↓

GridpexGASO 100%

Closing line

GASO −6

Closing total

61.0

Model line

GASO −3.7

Actual result

GASO 40 – 3 BALL

Georgia Southern

PassDavis Brin 34/46, 344 YDS, 4 TD
RushOJ Arnold 9 CAR, 90 YDS
RecKhaleb Hood 7 REC, 107 YDS, 1 TD

Ball State

PassKadin Semonza 11/23, 123 YDS, 2 INT
RushMarquez Cooper 9 CAR, 16 YDS
RecRico Barfield 2 REC, 50 YDS

26.4sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

136

Points / snap

0.32

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

GASO up 33 entering the 4th quarter. Across 455 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

GASO went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WHoly Cross vs Colgate47-7 WToledo vs Eastern Michigan49-30 WNotre Dame vs Stanford56-23 WSouth Dakota State vs Southern Illinois41-10 WTexas Tech vs West Virginia52-15

Q1 11:51GASO +16%
Davis Brin pass complete to Evan Lester Jr. for 1 yd for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)
Q1 8:47GASO +12%
Davis Brin pass complete to Keaton Upshaw for 9 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)

FAQ

What was the final score of Georgia Southern vs. Ball State?

Georgia Southern 40, Ball State 3.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (GASO) was correct.

GASO

BALL

50%

Success rate

33%

0.35

EPA / pass

-0.15

0.33

EPA / rush

0.05

51%

Early-down success

35%

48%

Pass success

32%

54%

Rush success

33%

13%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

23%

Stuffed rush rate

67%

Pass rate

59%

7.0

Avg 3rd-down distance

8.0

GASO

7.0 yards to go on 3rd down

78 scrimmage snaps

BALL

8.0 yards to go on 3rd down

58 scrimmage snaps

GASO		BALL
530	Total yards	197
363	Passing yards	160
167	Rushing yards	37
25	First downs	10
4-14	3rd down	3-15
2-2	4th down	0-0
36/50	Comp/Att	14/29
7.3	Yards per pass	5.5
6.2	Yards per rush	1.3
0	Turnovers	2
5-35	Penalties	3-25
30:41	Possession	29:19

Model prediction

how the number is built

Power rating (Elo)

BALL 1273

GASO 1425

Projected spread

BALL +3.7

incl. home edge

Model pick

GASO

59% to win

Market spread

BALL +6

sportsbook line

Model vs market

BALL

2.3 pts apart

Win prob: model / mkt

41%

BALL · market 31%

Our model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BALL Elo 1273, GASO Elo 1425 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BALL +3.7 (41% to win) — 2.3 points clear of BALL's market line of +6. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.

Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).

Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation

Season form — 2023

nationally ranked

GASO2023 season · national rank shownBALL

419.337th

Total yards / game

308.1122nd

5.768th

Yards / play

4.8121st

302.213th

Passing yards / game

136.7128th

117.1108th

Rushing yards / game

171.453rd

45.9%16th

3rd down %

37.5%79th

396.191st

Yards allowed / game

315.817th

38.6%65th

3rd down % allowed

34.7%33rd

-10126th

Turnover margin

-5102nd

5.869th

Penalties / game

5.239th

The matchup, in context

series history + adjusted profiles

Opponent-adjusted profile2023

GASO		BALL
-9.5 (#97)	CORE overall	-13.9 (#105)
-0 / +9	offense / defense	-10 / +4
2.21	points / drive	1.54
2.45	allowed / drive	2.40
19%	three-and-outs	35%
+16	pass over expected	-10

Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.

CORE ratings →Drive efficiency →Play-calling →

Pro

Key matchups

The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.

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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →

GASOTeam statsBALL

Scoring plays

How the model called it

Win probability

How the line closed

Leaders

Tempo

This exact spot, historically

Fourth downs

What decided it

FAQ

What was the final score of Georgia Southern vs. Ball State?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Situational splits

Team stats

Fourth downs

Drive chart

Scoring plays

Model prediction

Season form — 2023

The matchup, in context

Key matchups

Georgia Southern vs. Ball State: Final Score & Recap

GASOTeam statsBALL

How the model called it

What was the final score of Georgia Southern vs. Ball State?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Key matchups