#3Kadin Semonza

QB·Ball State·2024

Kadin Semonza is a Dual-Threat QB for Ball State. Kadin's 2024 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 434 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Kadin Semonza's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Passing

275/427 Comp/Att2900 Pass yards25 Pass TD10 INT64.4% Comp %

Rushing

-81 Rush yards1 Rush TD54 Carries-1.5 Yards/carry

Punting

6 Punts202 Punt yards33.7 Yards/punt41 Long2 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Dual-Threat67
Consistency58
Clutch91

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency58th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.15 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.84 EPA/play in Wk 12 vs Buffalo (SP+ -4).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
2	vsMissouri State	W42-34	—	28/39	262	4	1	43.1	16	1	0.47
3	@Miami	L0-62	21.6	16/26	111	0	1	16.1	-24	0	-0.24
4	@Central Michigan	L34-37	-15.8	30/40	285	3	0	64.2	-7	0	0.30
5	@James Madison	L7-63	7.5	22/35	168	1	3	26.4	-27	0	-0.30
6	vsWestern Michigan	L42-45	-10.2	21/34	307	3	2	49.7	5	0	0.57
7	@Kent State	W37-35	-33.0	21/34	215	1	0	43.7	6	0	0.10
8	@Vanderbilt	L14-24	4.9	21/29	190	1	0	53.2	-11	0	0.09
9	vsNorthern Illinois	W25-23	-3.5	20/33	211	2	0	71.8	-9	0	0.41
11	vsMiami (OH)	L21-27	1.3	23/36	280	1	2	44.4	-20	0	0.20
12	@Buffalo	L48-51	-4.0	25/37	327	4	1	81.8	53	0	0.84
13	vsBowling Green	L13-38	-1.8	19/37	211	2	0	21.9	-29	0	0.07
14	@Ohio	L21-42	2.3	29/47	333	3	0	64.0	-34	0	0.17

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

57.7%

Passing plays

95.3%

Rushing plays

6.6%

Standard downs

50.7%

Passing downs

71.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.14
Passing downs: 0.39
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.24 / 0.23

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).