Florida Atlantic vs. South Florida: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FAUTeam statsUSF
- Q4 6:44FAUKobe Lewis 12 Yd Run (Logan Lupo Kick)56–14
- Q4 14:55FAUTony Johnson 23 Yd pass from Daniel Richardson (Logan Lupo Kick)49–14
- Q3 6:14FAULaJohntay Wester 67 Yd Punt Return (Logan Lupo Kick)42–14
- Q3 7:50FAULaJohntay Wester 17 Yd pass from Daniel Richardson (Logan Lupo Kick)35–14
- Q3 12:41FAUMichael Johnson Jr. 5 Yd Run (Logan Lupo Kick)28–14
- Q2 0:12USFGunnar Greenwald 2 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (John Cannon Kick)21–14
- Q2 5:37FAULarry McCammon 3 Yd Run (Logan Lupo Kick)21–7
- Q2 9:33USFNay'Quan Wright 8 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)14–7
- Q2 10:59FAUMichael Johnson Jr. 9 Yd Run (Logan Lupo Kick)14–0
- Q1 11:43FAUZeke Moore 2 Yd pass from Daniel Richardson (Logan Lupo Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- USF played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and FAU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.1 vs 3rd & 7.8
- USF lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 16% explosive on a 35% success rate
- PassDaniel Richardson 31/38, 382 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushLarry McCammon III 18 CAR, 75 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTony Johnson 8 REC, 131 YDS, 1 TD
- PassByrum Brown 15/26, 179 YDS, 1 TD
- RushNay'Quan Wright 15 CAR, 106 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMichael Brown-Stephens 4 REC, 98 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFAU up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 464 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 10:59FAU +18%
Michael Johnson Jr. run for 9 yds for a TD (Logan Lupo KICK)
- Q1 11:43FAU +18%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Zeke Moore for 2 yds for a TD (Logan Lupo KICK)
- Q2 5:37FAU +16%
Larry McCammon 3 Yd Run (Logan Lupo Kick)
- Q2 0:12USF +16%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Gunnar Greenwald for 2 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
- Q3 12:41FAU +16%
Michael Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD (Logan Lupo KICK)
- Q2 9:33USF +16%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 8 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida Atlantic vs. South Florida?
Florida Atlantic 56, South Florida 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked USF, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| FAU | USF | |
|---|---|---|
| 587 | Total yards | 388 |
| 382 | Passing yards | 250 |
| 205 | Rushing yards | 138 |
| 27 | First downs | 21 |
| 9-16 | 3rd down | 3-15 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 2-5 |
| 31/38 | Comp/Att | 20/34 |
| 10.1 | Yards per pass | 7.4 |
| 5.1 | Yards per rush | 3.6 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-40 | Penalties | 5-40 |
| 36:19 | Possession | 23:41 |
Costliest call
Q1 5:24 USF punt on 4th & 1 at USF 13. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.12 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:44FAUKobe Lewis 12 Yd Run (Logan Lupo Kick)56–14
- Q4 14:55FAUTony Johnson 23 Yd pass from Daniel Richardson (Logan Lupo Kick)49–14
- Q3 6:14FAULaJohntay Wester 67 Yd Punt Return (Logan Lupo Kick)42–14
- Q3 7:50FAULaJohntay Wester 17 Yd pass from Daniel Richardson (Logan Lupo Kick)35–14
- Q3 12:41FAUMichael Johnson Jr. 5 Yd Run (Logan Lupo Kick)28–14
- Q2 0:12USFGunnar Greenwald 2 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (John Cannon Kick)21–14
- Q2 5:37FAULarry McCammon 3 Yd Run (Logan Lupo Kick)21–7
- Q2 9:33USFNay'Quan Wright 8 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)14–7
- Q2 10:59FAUMichael Johnson Jr. 9 Yd Run (Logan Lupo Kick)14–0
- Q1 11:43FAUZeke Moore 2 Yd pass from Daniel Richardson (Logan Lupo Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USF Elo 1297, FAU Elo 1357 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USF PK (51% to win) — 2.5 points clear of FAU's market line of -2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#5 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #98 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds.
The 2023 upset archive →| FAU | USF | |
|---|---|---|
| -21.6 (#128) | CORE overall | -7.8 (#94) |
| -14 / +8 | offense / defense | -1 / +6 |
| 1.65 | points / drive | 2.13 |
| 2.02 | allowed / drive | 2.46 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| +6 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →