East Carolina vs. Florida Atlantic: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ECUTeam statsFAU
- Q4 3:13ECUAndrew Conrad 40 Yd Field Goal 22–7
- Q4 7:05ECUAndrew Conrad 46 Yd Field Goal 19–7
- Q4 14:13ECUAndrew Conrad 43 Yd Field Goal 16–7
- Q2 2:37ECUAndrew Conrad 47 Yd Field Goal 13–7
- Q2 7:07FAUMichael Johnson Jr. 3 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)10–7
- Q2 14:08ECUAndrew Conrad 46 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 5:59ECUGerald Green 18 Yd Run (Andrew Conrad Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassAlex Flinn 18/30, 156 YDS, 1 INT
- RushGerald Green 15 CAR, 33 YDS, 1 TD
- RecChase Sowell 5 REC, 72 YDS
- PassDaniel Richardson 24/36, 151 YDS, 1 INT
- RushLarry McCammon III 12 CAR, 36 YDS
- RecJe'Quan Burton 5 REC, 39 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsECU up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,661 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 7:07FAU +20%
Michael Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Carter Davis KICK)
- Q1 5:59ECU +19%
Gerald Green run for 18 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)
- Q2 2:37ECU +12%
Andrew Conrad 47 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 14:13ECU +11%
Andrew Conrad 43 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 4:06ECU +9%
Alex Flinn pass complete to Tyler Savage for 6 yds to the ECU 26
- Q2 14:08ECU +9%
Andrew Conrad 46 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of East Carolina vs. Florida Atlantic?
East Carolina 22, Florida Atlantic 7.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked FAU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ECU | FAU | |
|---|---|---|
| 235 | Total yards | 172 |
| 156 | Passing yards | 151 |
| 79 | Rushing yards | 21 |
| 13 | First downs | 12 |
| 5-17 | 3rd down | 4-17 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-5 |
| 18/30 | Comp/Att | 24/37 |
| 5.2 | Yards per pass | 4.1 |
| 2.1 | Yards per rush | 0.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 2-25 | Penalties | 1-9 |
| 32:03 | Possession | 27:57 |
Costliest call
Q4 9:16 FAU go for it on 4th & 6 at FAU 30. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.47 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:13ECUAndrew Conrad 40 Yd Field Goal 22–7
- Q4 7:05ECUAndrew Conrad 46 Yd Field Goal 19–7
- Q4 14:13ECUAndrew Conrad 43 Yd Field Goal 16–7
- Q2 2:37ECUAndrew Conrad 47 Yd Field Goal 13–7
- Q2 7:07FAUMichael Johnson Jr. 3 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)10–7
- Q2 14:08ECUAndrew Conrad 46 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 5:59ECUGerald Green 18 Yd Run (Andrew Conrad Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FAU Elo 1446, ECU Elo 1348 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FAU -6.3 (67% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#42 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #48 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds.
The 2023 upset archive →| ECU | FAU | |
|---|---|---|
| -20.0 (#125) | CORE overall | -21.6 (#128) |
| -19 / +1 | offense / defense | -14 / +8 |
| 0.90 | points / drive | 1.65 |
| 1.84 | allowed / drive | 2.02 |
| 41% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →