Clemson vs. Duke: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CLEMTeam statsDUKE
- Q4 3:15DUKEJordan Waters 36 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)7–28
- Q4 10:33DUKEJaquez Moore 9 Yd Run (Riley Leonard Pass to Jalon Calhoun for Two-Point Conversion)7–21
- Q3 12:40DUKERiley Leonard 44 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)7–13
- Q2 10:09CLEMWill Shipley 2 Yd pass from Cade Klubnik (Robert Gunn III Kick)7–6
- Q2 14:19DUKETodd Pelino 42 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 9:19DUKETodd Pelino 22 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassCade Klubnik 27/43, 209 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushWill Shipley 17 CAR, 114 YDS
- RecAntonio Williams 7 REC, 56 YDS
- PassRiley Leonard 17/33, 175 YDS
- RushRiley Leonard 8 CAR, 98 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJordan Waters 3 REC, 46 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsDUKE up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,659 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 12:40DUKE +25%
Riley Leonard 44 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)
- Q2 10:09CLEM +21%
Will Shipley 2 Yd pass from Cade Klubnik (Robert Gunn III Kick)
- Q4 10:33DUKE +17%
Jaquez Moore 9 Yd Run (Riley Leonard Pass to Jalon Calhoun for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q4 13:55DUKE +11%
Jordan Waters run for 4 yds to the CLEM 29
- Q3 4:58DUKE +9%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Sahmir Hagans
- Q2 14:19DUKE +9%
Todd Pelino 42 Yd Field Goal
FAQ
What was the final score of Clemson vs. Duke?
Clemson 7, Duke 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked CLEM, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| CLEM | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 422 | Total yards | 374 |
| 209 | Passing yards | 175 |
| 213 | Rushing yards | 199 |
| 29 | First downs | 17 |
| 7-15 | 3rd down | 5-15 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 27/43 | Comp/Att | 17/34 |
| 4.9 | Yards per pass | 5.1 |
| 5.3 | Yards per rush | 6.6 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 1-5 | Penalties | 7-45 |
| 33:33 | Possession | 26:27 |
Costliest call
Q3 4:24 DUKE punt on 4th & 2 at DUKE 18. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.35 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:15DUKEJordan Waters 36 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)7–28
- Q4 10:33DUKEJaquez Moore 9 Yd Run (Riley Leonard Pass to Jalon Calhoun for Two-Point Conversion)7–21
- Q3 12:40DUKERiley Leonard 44 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)7–13
- Q2 10:09CLEMWill Shipley 2 Yd pass from Cade Klubnik (Robert Gunn III Kick)7–6
- Q2 14:19DUKETodd Pelino 42 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 9:19DUKETodd Pelino 22 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (DUKE Elo 1518, CLEM Elo 1728 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects DUKE +6 (36% to win) — 6.5 points clear of DUKE's market line of +12.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#13 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #20 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds · #2 of 51 in 2023 by biggest poll gap.
The 2023 upset archive →Clemson leads 37–18–1 · Duke has won 2 straight · 41% have been one-possession games
| CLEM | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| +13.8 (#26) | CORE overall | +3.5 (#48) |
| -0 / -14 | offense / defense | +3 / -1 |
| 1.87 | points / drive | 2.21 |
| 1.38 | allowed / drive | 1.73 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 34% |
| +5 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →