BYU vs. Liberty: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BYUTeam statsLIB
- Q4 10:36LIBCJ Daniels 25 Yd pass from Johnathan Bennett (Nick Brown Kick)14–41
- Q3 6:54LIBDae Dae Hunter 80 Yd Run (Nick Brown Kick)14–34
- Q3 9:16LIBShedro Louis 6 Yd Run (Nick Brown Kick)14–27
- Q2 0:05LIBNick Brown 37 Yd Field Goal 14–20
- Q2 5:06LIBAustin Henderson 5 Yd pass from Johnathan Bennett (Nick Brown Kick)14–17
- Q2 13:59LIBShedro Louis 3 Yd Run (Nick Brown Kick)14–10
- Q1 2:41BYUIsaac Rex 20 Yd pass from Jaren Hall (Jake Oldroyd Kick)14–3
- Q1 4:14BYUPuka Nacua 46 Yd pass from Jaren Hall (Jake Oldroyd Kick)7–3
- Q1 7:29LIBNick Brown 22 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- BYU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and LIB did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.8 vs 3rd & 4.6
- BYU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 34% success rate
- PassJaren Hall 16/34, 187 YDS, 2 TD
- RushChris Brooks 3 CAR, 26 YDS
- RecPuka Nacua 7 REC, 114 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJohnathan Bennett 24/29, 247 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushDae Dae Hunter 23 CAR, 213 YDS, 1 TD
- RecNoah Frith 4 REC, 70 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsLIB up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 818 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 5:06LIB +22%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Austin Henderson for 5 yds for a TD, (Nick Brown KICK)
- Q1 4:14BYU +19%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 46 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)
- Q2 13:59LIB +18%
Shedro Louis run for 3 yds for a TD, (Nick Brown KICK)
- Q3 9:16LIB +18%
Shedro Louis run for 6 yds for a TD, (Nick Brown KICK)
- Q1 2:41BYU +18%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Isaac Rex for 20 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)
- Q2 0:05LIB +14%
Nick Brown 37 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of BYU vs. Liberty?
BYU 14, Liberty 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (LIB) was correct.
| BYU | LIB | |
|---|---|---|
| 258 | Total yards | 547 |
| 187 | Passing yards | 247 |
| 71 | Rushing yards | 300 |
| 12 | First downs | 28 |
| 3-11 | 3rd down | 7-12 |
| 0-3 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 16/34 | Comp/Att | 24/29 |
| 5.5 | Yards per pass | 8.5 |
| 4.4 | Yards per rush | 6.3 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 4-23 | Penalties | 6-41 |
| 20:52 | Possession | 39:08 |
Costliest call
Q3 0:16 BYU go for it on 4th & 12 at LIB 47. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.36 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 10:36LIBCJ Daniels 25 Yd pass from Johnathan Bennett (Nick Brown Kick)14–41
- Q3 6:54LIBDae Dae Hunter 80 Yd Run (Nick Brown Kick)14–34
- Q3 9:16LIBShedro Louis 6 Yd Run (Nick Brown Kick)14–27
- Q2 0:05LIBNick Brown 37 Yd Field Goal 14–20
- Q2 5:06LIBAustin Henderson 5 Yd pass from Johnathan Bennett (Nick Brown Kick)14–17
- Q2 13:59LIBShedro Louis 3 Yd Run (Nick Brown Kick)14–10
- Q1 2:41BYUIsaac Rex 20 Yd pass from Jaren Hall (Jake Oldroyd Kick)14–3
- Q1 4:14BYUPuka Nacua 46 Yd pass from Jaren Hall (Jake Oldroyd Kick)7–3
- Q1 7:29LIBNick Brown 22 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LIB Elo 1562, BYU Elo 1585 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LIB -1.5 (55% to win) — 8.5 points clear of LIB's market line of +7. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#13 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #68 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds.
The 2022 upset archive →| BYU | LIB | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.6 (#65) | CORE overall | +1.4 (#62) |
| +6 / +6 | offense / defense | -3 / -5 |
| 2.87 | points / drive | 2.05 |
| 2.73 | allowed / drive | 1.88 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| +1 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →