Boise State vs. San José State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BOISTeam statsSJSU
- Q4 3:48SJSUDerrick Deese Jr. 1 Yd pass from Nick Starkel (Matt Mercurio Kick)20–34
- Q4 10:51BOISHank Bachmeier 2 Yd Run (Jonah Dalmas Kick)20–27
- Q4 14:17SJSUIsaiah Hamilton 30 Yd pass from Nick Starkel (Nick Starkel Pass to Sam Olson for Two-Point Conversion)13–27
- Q3 2:48BOISAvery Williams 69 Yd Punt Return (Jonah Dalmas Kick)13–19
- Q2 0:00BOISJonah Dalmas 50 Yd Field Goal 6–19
- Q2 0:50SJSUMatt Mercurio 32 Yd Field Goal 3–19
- Q2 2:31SJSUMatt Mercurio 26 Yd Field Goal 3–16
- Q2 6:40SJSUMatt Mercurio 36 Yd Field Goal 3–13
- Q2 14:46SJSUMatt Mercurio 24 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q1 3:31BOISJonah Dalmas 51 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 8:36SJSUTre Walker 55 Yd pass from Nick Starkel (Matt Mercurio Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassHank Bachmeier 20/40, 221 YDS
- RushAndrew Van Buren 11 CAR, 26 YDS
- RecKhalil Shakir 6 REC, 85 YDS
- PassNick Starkel 32/52, 453 YDS, 3 TD
- RushKairee Robinson 12 CAR, 39 YDS
- RecTre Walker 7 REC, 137 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSJSU up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 10:51BOIS +21%
Hank Bachmeier run for 2 yds for a TD SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Delay of Game (2 Yards) to the SJSt 1 for a 1ST down (Jonah Dalmas KICK)
- Q4 14:17SJSU +21%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 30 yds for a TD (Nick Starkel pass to Sam Olson for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q1 8:36SJSU +18%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Tre Walker for 55 yds for a TD BOISE ST Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declined (Matt Mercurio KICK)
- Q4 6:15SJSU +17%
Tyler Nevens run for 15 yds to the BoiSt 5 for a 1ST down
- Q4 9:55SJSU +16%
Tyler Nevens run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 42
- Q2 6:40SJSU +14%
Matt Mercurio 36 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Boise State vs. San José State?
Boise State 20, San José State 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BOIS, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BOIS | SJSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 224 | Total yards | 498 |
| 221 | Passing yards | 453 |
| 12 | Rushing yards | 45 |
| 13 | First downs | 26 |
| 3-14 | 3rd down | 5-16 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 20/40 | Comp/Att | 32/52 |
| 5.5 | Yards per pass | 8.7 |
| 0.5 | Yards per rush | 1.8 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-69 | Penalties | 8-49 |
| 25:28 | Possession | 34:32 |
Costliest call
Q4 9:24 SJSU punt on 4th & 3 at BOIS 42. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.08 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:48SJSUDerrick Deese Jr. 1 Yd pass from Nick Starkel (Matt Mercurio Kick)20–34
- Q4 10:51BOISHank Bachmeier 2 Yd Run (Jonah Dalmas Kick)20–27
- Q4 14:17SJSUIsaiah Hamilton 30 Yd pass from Nick Starkel (Nick Starkel Pass to Sam Olson for Two-Point Conversion)13–27
- Q3 2:48BOISAvery Williams 69 Yd Punt Return (Jonah Dalmas Kick)13–19
- Q2 0:00BOISJonah Dalmas 50 Yd Field Goal 6–19
- Q2 0:50SJSUMatt Mercurio 32 Yd Field Goal 3–19
- Q2 2:31SJSUMatt Mercurio 26 Yd Field Goal 3–16
- Q2 6:40SJSUMatt Mercurio 36 Yd Field Goal 3–13
- Q2 14:46SJSUMatt Mercurio 24 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q1 3:31BOISJonah Dalmas 51 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 8:36SJSUTre Walker 55 Yd pass from Nick Starkel (Matt Mercurio Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SJSU Elo 1513, BOIS Elo 1708 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects SJSU +7.8 (31% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#52 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #65 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds.
The 2020 upset archive →Boise State leads 16–1 · Boise State has won 2 straight · 18% have been one-possession games
| BOIS | SJSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +9.5 (#31) | CORE overall | +8.0 (#36) |
| +3 / -7 | offense / defense | +3 / -5 |
| 2.54 | points / drive | 2.29 |
| 2.08 | allowed / drive | 1.60 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +5 | pass over expected | +10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →