Western Kentucky vs. Arkansas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WKUTeam statsARK
- Q4 4:44ARKK.J. Jefferson 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)45–19
- Q4 8:20WKUDevon Key 25 Yd Interception Return (Cory Munson Kick)45–13
- Q4 12:21ARKRakeem Boyd 86 Yd Run (Connor Limpert PAT blocked)38–13
- Q3 9:38WKUCory Munson 19 Yd Field Goal 38–7
- Q2 0:19WKUGaej Walker 1 Yd Run (Cory Munson Kick)35–7
- Q2 6:02WKUJahcour Pearson 69 Yd pass from Ty Storey (Cory Munson Kick)28–7
- Q2 7:42WKUTy Storey 1 Yd Run (Cory Munson Kick)21–7
- Q1 1:59WKUTy Storey 9 Yd Run (Cory Munson Kick)14–7
- Q1 8:02ARKRakeem Boyd 76 Yd Run (Connor Limpert Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:30WKUJacquez Sloan 19 Yd Run (Cory Munson Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ARK played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and WKU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.2 vs 3rd & 5.3
- PassTy Storey 22/32, 213 YDS, 1 TD
- RushGaej Walker 23 CAR, 129 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJahcour Pearson 10 REC, 120 YDS, 1 TD
- PassKJ Jefferson 6/15, 60 YDS, 1 INT
- RushRakeem Boyd 8 CAR, 185 YDS, 2 TD
- RecTreylon Burks 5 REC, 59 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWKU up 31 entering the 4th quarter. Across 343 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 1:59WKU +17%
Ty Storey run for 9 yds for a TD (Cory Munson KICK)
- Q1 8:02ARK +16%
Rakeem Boyd run for 76 yds for a TD (Connor Limpert KICK)
- Q1 9:30WKU +16%
Jacquez Sloan run for 19 yds for a TD (Cory Munson KICK)
- Q2 7:42WKU +13%
Ty Storey run for 1 yd for a TD (Cory Munson KICK)
- Q2 6:02WKU +8%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 69 yds for a TD (Cory Munson KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Western Kentucky vs. Arkansas?
Western Kentucky 45, Arkansas 19.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WKU) was correct.
| WKU | ARK | |
|---|---|---|
| 478 | Total yards | 340 |
| 213 | Passing yards | 87 |
| 265 | Rushing yards | 253 |
| 23 | First downs | 12 |
| 9-18 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 5-5 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 22/32 | Comp/Att | 9/26 |
| 6.7 | Yards per pass | 3.3 |
| 5.6 | Yards per rush | 9.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 3-20 | Penalties | 3-25 |
| 36:57 | Possession | 23:03 |
Costliest call
Q3 9:38 WKU field goal on 4th & 1 at ARK 1. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 2.14 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:44ARKK.J. Jefferson 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)45–19
- Q4 8:20WKUDevon Key 25 Yd Interception Return (Cory Munson Kick)45–13
- Q4 12:21ARKRakeem Boyd 86 Yd Run (Connor Limpert PAT blocked)38–13
- Q3 9:38WKUCory Munson 19 Yd Field Goal 38–7
- Q2 0:19WKUGaej Walker 1 Yd Run (Cory Munson Kick)35–7
- Q2 6:02WKUJahcour Pearson 69 Yd pass from Ty Storey (Cory Munson Kick)28–7
- Q2 7:42WKUTy Storey 1 Yd Run (Cory Munson Kick)21–7
- Q1 1:59WKUTy Storey 9 Yd Run (Cory Munson Kick)14–7
- Q1 8:02ARKRakeem Boyd 76 Yd Run (Connor Limpert Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:30WKUJacquez Sloan 19 Yd Run (Cory Munson Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARK Elo 1252, WKU Elo 1422 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARK +4.4 (40% to win) — 4.9 points clear of WKU's market line of -0.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#28 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #104 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds.
The 2019 upset archive →| WKU | ARK | |
|---|---|---|
| +3.3 (#48) | CORE overall | -16.4 (#112) |
| -5 / -8 | offense / defense | -7 / +9 |
| 2.25 | points / drive | 1.54 |
| 1.56 | allowed / drive | 3.39 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 35% |
| +9 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →