Utah vs. Texas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UTAHTeam statsTEX
- Q4 7:54TEXKeaontay Ingram 49 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)10–38
- Q4 8:58TEXDevin Duvernay 15 Yd pass from Sam Ehlinger (Cameron Dicker Kick)10–31
- Q4 11:34UTAHDemari Simpkins 4 Yd pass from Tyler Huntley (Jadon Redding Kick)10–24
- Q3 0:06TEXSam Ehlinger 6 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)3–24
- Q3 4:58UTAHJadon Redding 32 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q3 10:30TEXKeaontay Ingram 11 Yd pass from Sam Ehlinger (Cameron Dicker Kick)0–17
- Q2 13:24TEXCollin Johnson 5 Yd pass from Sam Ehlinger (Cameron Dicker Kick)0–10
- Q1 10:26TEXCameron Dicker 29 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassTyler Huntley 15/23, 126 YDS, 1 TD
- RushZack Moss 16 CAR, 57 YDS
- RecCole Fotheringham 3 REC, 30 YDS
- PassSam Ehlinger 12/18, 201 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushKeaontay Ingram 13 CAR, 108 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDevin Duvernay 3 REC, 92 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTEX up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 13:24TEX +20%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 5 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK)
- Q3 10:30TEX +15%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for 11 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK)
- Q1 10:26TEX +7%
Cameron Dicker 29 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 11:34TEX +7%
Keaontay Ingram run for 5 yds to the Utah 38
- Q3 3:11TEX +6%
Sam Ehlinger run for 31 yds to the Utah 36 for a 1ST down
- Q2 0:00TEX +6%
Keaontay Ingram run for 15 yds to the Texas 35 for a 1ST down
FAQ
What was the final score of Utah vs. Texas?
Utah 10, Texas 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UTAH, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UTAH | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| 254 | Total yards | 438 |
| 126 | Passing yards | 207 |
| 128 | Rushing yards | 231 |
| 15 | First downs | 22 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 4-9 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 15/23 | Comp/Att | 13/19 |
| 5.5 | Yards per pass | 10.9 |
| 3.5 | Yards per rush | 6.2 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-53 | Penalties | 4-38 |
| 31:26 | Possession | 28:34 |
Costliest call
Q2 14:07 UTAH punt on 4th & 2 at UTAH 28. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.48 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:54TEXKeaontay Ingram 49 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)10–38
- Q4 8:58TEXDevin Duvernay 15 Yd pass from Sam Ehlinger (Cameron Dicker Kick)10–31
- Q4 11:34UTAHDemari Simpkins 4 Yd pass from Tyler Huntley (Jadon Redding Kick)10–24
- Q3 0:06TEXSam Ehlinger 6 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)3–24
- Q3 4:58UTAHJadon Redding 32 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q3 10:30TEXKeaontay Ingram 11 Yd pass from Sam Ehlinger (Cameron Dicker Kick)0–17
- Q2 13:24TEXCollin Johnson 5 Yd pass from Sam Ehlinger (Cameron Dicker Kick)0–10
- Q1 10:26TEXCameron Dicker 29 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TEX Elo 1760, UTAH Elo 1937 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects TEX +7.1 (33% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#8 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #57 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds.
The 2019 upset archive →| UTAH | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| +25.6 (#8) | CORE overall | +14.7 (#22) |
| +10 / -15 | offense / defense | +12 / -3 |
| 2.80 | points / drive | 2.91 |
| 1.22 | allowed / drive | 2.22 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -6 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →