#11Sam Ehlinger

QB·Texas·2020 2019 20189.1 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Sam Ehlinger is a 3-year Dual-Threat QB for Texas. Sam's 2020 season ranks in the 50th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 433 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Sam Ehlinger's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2020 Production

Passing

194/322 Comp/Att2566 Pass yards26 Pass TD5 INT60.2% Comp %

Rushing

378 Rush yards8 Rush TD113 Carries3.3 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs QB peers

Efficiency50
Volume100
Dual-Threat82
Consistency78
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)50th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency78th %ile · above avg

Career trajectory:→ Stable

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.30 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.87 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs UTEP (SP+ -19).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Tanner Mordecai	SMU	2021	510	0.630	14.0	321.5
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Ryan Higgins	Louisiana Tech	2016	571	0.586	13.7	334.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
2	vsUTEP	W59-3	-18.6	25/33	426	5	0	—	12	0	0.87
4	@Texas Tech	W63-56	-4.2	27/40	262	5	1	—	70	1	0.33
5	vsTCU	L31-33	1.6	17/36	236	4	1	—	49	0	0.36
6	vsOklahoma	L45-53	17.8	30/53	287	2	2	72.6	112	4	0.22
8	vsBaylor	W27-16	1.3	15/23	270	1	1	—	51	2	0.63
9	@Oklahoma State	W41-34	14.2	18/34	169	3	0	—	-9	0	0.01
10	vsWest Virginia	W17-13	8.5	15/31	184	2	0	—	39	0	0.18
13	vsIowa State	L20-23	13.3	17/29	298	1	0	—	65	1	0.23
14	@Kansas State	W69-31	2.0	20/27	274	2	0	—	-6	0	0.41
1	vsColorado	W55-23	-0.4	10/16	160	1	0	—	-5	0	0.10

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

61.0%

Passing plays

94.2%

Rushing plays

26.8%

Standard downs

55.4%

Passing downs

73.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.21
Passing downs: 0.51
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.32 / 0.31

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2018 — 2020 · 37 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2018	Texas	10.0	0.487	—	309.0
2019	Texas	13.2	0.535	+0.05	349.0
2020	Texas	9.1	0.480	-0.06	222.4

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.