Utah vs. Oregon: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UTAHTeam statsORE
- Q4 2:33ORECJ Verdell 31 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick)15–37
- Q4 7:09ORECJ Verdell 70 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick)15–30
- Q3 1:13UTAHSamson Nacua 25 Yd pass from Tyler Huntley (Tyler Huntley Pass to Samson Nacua for Two-Point Conversion)15–23
- Q3 4:56ORECamden Lewis 25 Yd Field Goal 7–23
- Q3 10:52UTAHZack Moss 24 Yd pass from Tyler Huntley (Jadon Redding Kick)7–20
- Q2 4:56ORECamden Lewis 30 Yd Field Goal 0–20
- Q2 11:02OREJohnny Johnson III 45 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Camden Lewis Kick)0–17
- Q1 4:17ORECamden Lewis 23 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 8:00ORECJ Verdell 3 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UTAH played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ORE did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.8 vs 3rd & 6.9
- UTAH lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 15% explosive on a 31% success rate
- PassTyler Huntley 17/29, 193 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushZack Moss 19 CAR, 113 YDS
- RecZack Moss 4 REC, 57 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJustin Herbert 14/26, 193 YDS, 1 TD
- RushCJ Verdell 18 CAR, 208 YDS, 3 TD
- RecJohnny Johnson III 6 REC, 87 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsORE up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 8:00ORE +19%
CJ Verdell run for 3 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)
- Q3 1:13UTAH +18%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Samson Nacua for 25 yds for a TD, (Tyler Huntley pass to Samson Nacua for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q4 8:35ORE +15%
CJ Verdell run for 2 yds to the Oregn 23
- Q2 11:02ORE +14%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 45 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)
- Q4 14:45ORE +11%
Blake Maimone punt for 44 yds, Demari Simpkins returns for 4 yds to the Utah 30
- Q3 10:52UTAH +10%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Zack Moss for 24 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Utah vs. Oregon?
Utah 15, Oregon 37.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UTAH, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UTAH | ORE | |
|---|---|---|
| 309 | Total yards | 432 |
| 193 | Passing yards | 193 |
| 116 | Rushing yards | 239 |
| 18 | First downs | 19 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 4-14 |
| 0-4 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 17/29 | Comp/Att | 14/26 |
| 6.7 | Yards per pass | 7.4 |
| 3.3 | Yards per rush | 5.8 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 8-48 | Penalties | 12-95 |
| 30:40 | Possession | 29:20 |
Costliest call
Q4 9:28 UTAH punt on 4th & 4 at ORE 40. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.87 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:33ORECJ Verdell 31 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick)15–37
- Q4 7:09ORECJ Verdell 70 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick)15–30
- Q3 1:13UTAHSamson Nacua 25 Yd pass from Tyler Huntley (Tyler Huntley Pass to Samson Nacua for Two-Point Conversion)15–23
- Q3 4:56ORECamden Lewis 25 Yd Field Goal 7–23
- Q3 10:52UTAHZack Moss 24 Yd pass from Tyler Huntley (Jadon Redding Kick)7–20
- Q2 4:56ORECamden Lewis 30 Yd Field Goal 0–20
- Q2 11:02OREJohnny Johnson III 45 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Camden Lewis Kick)0–17
- Q1 4:17ORECamden Lewis 23 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 8:00ORECJ Verdell 3 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ORE Elo 1942, UTAH Elo 2006 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects ORE +2.6 (44% to win) — 3.9 points clear of ORE's market line of +6.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#25 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #67 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds · #28 of 51 in 2019 by biggest poll gap.
The 2019 upset archive →Oregon leads 25–12 · Oregon has won 2 straight · 49% have been one-possession games
| UTAH | ORE | |
|---|---|---|
| +25.6 (#8) | CORE overall | +23.9 (#10) |
| +10 / -15 | offense / defense | +8 / -16 |
| 2.80 | points / drive | 2.85 |
| 1.22 | allowed / drive | 1.36 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| -6 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →