Oregon State vs. UCLA: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ORSTTeam statsUCLA
- Q4 1:42ORSTJake Luton 19 Yd Run (Jordan Choukair Kick)48–31
- Q4 8:39UCLAAustin Burton 6 Yd Run (JJ Molson Kick)41–31
- Q3 0:17ORSTIsaiah Hodgins 22 Yd pass from Jake Luton (Jordan Choukair Kick)41–24
- Q3 4:18UCLADemetric Felton 75 Yd Run (JJ Molson Kick)34–24
- Q3 4:30ORSTTyjon Lindsey 53 Yd pass from Jake Luton (Jordan Choukair Kick)34–17
- Q3 10:13UCLAJoshua Kelley 0 Yd Run (JJ Molson Kick)27–17
- Q2 1:40UCLAJJ Molson 37 Yd Field Goal 27–10
- Q2 7:07ORSTIsaiah Hodgins 5 Yd pass from Jake Luton (Jordan Choukair PAT failed)27–7
- Q2 10:56UCLAKyle Philips 7 Yd pass from Austin Burton (JJ Molson Kick)21–7
- Q1 8:59ORSTTeagan Quitoriano 27 Yd pass from Jake Luton (Jordan Choukair Kick)21–0
- Q1 9:11ORSTArtavis Pierce 5 Yd Run (Jordan Choukair Kick)14–0
- Q1 12:17ORSTIsaiah Hodgins 4 Yd pass from Jake Luton (Jordan Choukair Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassJake Luton 18/26, 285 YDS, 5 TD
- RushArtavis Pierce 21 CAR, 119 YDS, 1 TD
- RecIsaiah Hodgins 10 REC, 123 YDS, 3 TD
- PassAustin Burton 27/41, 236 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDemetric Felton 11 CAR, 111 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKyle Philips 7 REC, 71 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsORST up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 4:30ORST +25%
Jake Luton pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 53 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)
- Q3 4:18UCLA +21%
Demetric Felton run for 75 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)
- Q4 4:47ORST +20%
Artavis Pierce run for 1 yd to the UCLA 24
- Q1 9:11ORST +19%
Artavis Pierce run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)
- Q1 12:17ORST +17%
Jake Luton pass complete to Isaiah Hodgins for 4 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)
- Q1 8:59ORST +16%
Jake Luton pass complete to Teagan Quitoriano for 27 yds for a TD, (Jordan Choukair KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Oregon State vs. UCLA?
Oregon State 48, UCLA 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UCLA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ORST | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 448 | Total yards | 492 |
| 285 | Passing yards | 236 |
| 163 | Rushing yards | 256 |
| 20 | First downs | 27 |
| 5-11 | 3rd down | 12-19 |
| 3-3 | 4th down | 2-5 |
| 18/26 | Comp/Att | 27/41 |
| 11.0 | Yards per pass | 5.8 |
| 5.1 | Yards per rush | 5.3 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-33 | Penalties | 2-25 |
| 24:43 | Possession | 35:17 |
Costliest call
Q3 4:18 ORST go for it on 4th & 6 at UCLA 29. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.51 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:42ORSTJake Luton 19 Yd Run (Jordan Choukair Kick)48–31
- Q4 8:39UCLAAustin Burton 6 Yd Run (JJ Molson Kick)41–31
- Q3 0:17ORSTIsaiah Hodgins 22 Yd pass from Jake Luton (Jordan Choukair Kick)41–24
- Q3 4:18UCLADemetric Felton 75 Yd Run (JJ Molson Kick)34–24
- Q3 4:30ORSTTyjon Lindsey 53 Yd pass from Jake Luton (Jordan Choukair Kick)34–17
- Q3 10:13UCLAJoshua Kelley 0 Yd Run (JJ Molson Kick)27–17
- Q2 1:40UCLAJJ Molson 37 Yd Field Goal 27–10
- Q2 7:07ORSTIsaiah Hodgins 5 Yd pass from Jake Luton (Jordan Choukair PAT failed)27–7
- Q2 10:56UCLAKyle Philips 7 Yd pass from Austin Burton (JJ Molson Kick)21–7
- Q1 8:59ORSTTeagan Quitoriano 27 Yd pass from Jake Luton (Jordan Choukair Kick)21–0
- Q1 9:11ORSTArtavis Pierce 5 Yd Run (Jordan Choukair Kick)14–0
- Q1 12:17ORSTIsaiah Hodgins 4 Yd pass from Jake Luton (Jordan Choukair Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UCLA Elo 1405, ORST Elo 1225 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UCLA -9.6 (75% to win) — 5.1 points clear of UCLA's market line of -4.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#48 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #75 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds.
The 2019 upset archive →UCLA leads 43–18–4 · Oregon State has won 2 straight · 28% have been one-possession games
| ORST | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.1 (#70) | CORE overall | -10.3 (#102) |
| +4 / +7 | offense / defense | -1 / +9 |
| 2.46 | points / drive | 2.03 |
| 2.92 | allowed / drive | 2.86 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +4 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →