Navy vs. Tulsa: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NAVYTeam statsTLSA
- Q4 2:12NAVYJamale Carothers 19 Yd Run (Bijan Nichols Kick)45–17
- Q4 3:47NAVYBijan Nichols 37 Yd Field Goal 38–17
- Q4 6:18TLSAT.K. Wilkerson 12 Yd pass from Zach Smith (Jacob Rainey Kick)35–17
- Q4 12:54NAVYMalcolm Perry 3 Yd Run (Bijan Nichols Kick)35–10
- Q3 12:18TLSACorey Taylor II 1 Yd Run (Jacob Rainey Kick)28–10
- Q2 2:11NAVYMalcolm Perry 35 Yd Run (Bijan Nichols Kick)28–3
- Q2 6:02NAVYNelson Smith 6 Yd Run (Bijan Nichols Kick)21–3
- Q2 9:06NAVYCJ Williams 6 Yd Run (Bijan Nichols Kick)14–3
- Q1 0:09NAVYMalcolm Perry 29 Yd Run (Bijan Nichols Kick)7–3
- Q1 7:29TLSAJacob Rainey 41 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassCJ Williams 1/1, 26 YDS
- RushMalcolm Perry 20 CAR, 218 YDS, 3 TD
- RecJamale Carothers 1 REC, 26 YDS
- PassZach Smith 23/48, 254 YDS, 1 TD
- RushShamari Brooks 12 CAR, 55 YDS
- RecJuanCarlos Santana 9 REC, 98 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNAVY up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 0:09NAVY +19%
Malcolm Perry run for 29 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)
- Q2 9:06NAVY +17%
CJ Williams run for 6 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)
- Q2 6:02NAVY +10%
Nelson Smith run for 6 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)
- Q1 7:29TLSA +8%
Jacob Rainey 41 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Navy vs. Tulsa?
Navy 45, Tulsa 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (NAVY) was correct.
| NAVY | TLSA | |
|---|---|---|
| 423 | Total yards | 323 |
| 35 | Passing yards | 254 |
| 388 | Rushing yards | 69 |
| 19 | First downs | 16 |
| 5-12 | 3rd down | 8-21 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 3/5 | Comp/Att | 23/48 |
| 7.0 | Yards per pass | 5.3 |
| 6.7 | Yards per rush | 2.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-35 | Penalties | 10-51 |
| 31:21 | Possession | 28:39 |
Costliest call
Q4 10:11 NAVY punt on 4th & 2 at TLSA 42. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.40 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:12NAVYJamale Carothers 19 Yd Run (Bijan Nichols Kick)45–17
- Q4 3:47NAVYBijan Nichols 37 Yd Field Goal 38–17
- Q4 6:18TLSAT.K. Wilkerson 12 Yd pass from Zach Smith (Jacob Rainey Kick)35–17
- Q4 12:54NAVYMalcolm Perry 3 Yd Run (Bijan Nichols Kick)35–10
- Q3 12:18TLSACorey Taylor II 1 Yd Run (Jacob Rainey Kick)28–10
- Q2 2:11NAVYMalcolm Perry 35 Yd Run (Bijan Nichols Kick)28–3
- Q2 6:02NAVYNelson Smith 6 Yd Run (Bijan Nichols Kick)21–3
- Q2 9:06NAVYCJ Williams 6 Yd Run (Bijan Nichols Kick)14–3
- Q1 0:09NAVYMalcolm Perry 29 Yd Run (Bijan Nichols Kick)7–3
- Q1 7:29TLSAJacob Rainey 41 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TLSA Elo 1366, NAVY Elo 1477 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TLSA +2 (46% to win) — 3.0 points clear of NAVY's market line of -1. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#23 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #103 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds.
The 2019 upset archive →Navy leads 9–2 · Navy has won 3 straight · 36% have been one-possession games
| NAVY | TLSA | |
|---|---|---|
| +18.9 (#17) | CORE overall | +2.9 (#49) |
| +13 / -6 | offense / defense | -3 / -6 |
| 3.19 | points / drive | 1.98 |
| 1.93 | allowed / drive | 2.30 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| -33 | pass over expected | -0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →