Eastern Michigan vs. Northern Illinois: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
EMUTeam statsNIU
- Q4 0:52NIUDaniel Crawford 9 Yd pass from Marcus Childers (John Richardson Kick)45–17
- Q4 9:33EMUJairus Grissom 3 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)45–10
- Q3 0:11EMUArthur Jackson III 22 Yd pass from Mike Glass III (Chad Ryland Kick)38–10
- Q3 2:05EMUChad Ryland 27 Yd Field Goal 31–10
- Q3 8:17EMULine Latu 36 Yd pass from Mike Glass III (Chad Ryland Kick)28–10
- Q3 8:39NIUJohn Richardson 34 Yd Field Goal 21–10
- Q3 11:37EMUShaq Vann 8 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)21–7
- Q2 6:33NIUMarcus Childers 8 Yd Run (John Richardson Kick)14–7
- Q2 11:41EMUArthur Jackson III 36 Yd pass from Mike Glass III (Chad Ryland Kick)14–0
- Q1 6:56EMUMike Glass III 1 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassMike Glass III 20/24, 235 YDS, 3 TD
- RushShaq Vann 14 CAR, 101 YDS, 1 TD
- RecArthur Jackson III 5 REC, 78 YDS, 2 TD
- PassMarcus Childers 12/26, 99 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- RushTre Harbison 30 CAR, 112 YDS
- RecMitchell Brinkman 4 REC, 34 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsEMU up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 6:56EMU +19%
Mike Glass III run for 1 yd for a TD (Chad Ryland KICK)
- Q3 11:37EMU +18%
Shaq Vann run for 8 yds for a TD (Chad Ryland KICK)
- Q2 11:41EMU +18%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Arthur Jackson III for 36 yds for a TD (Chad Ryland KICK)
- Q2 6:33NIU +16%
Marcus Childers run for 8 yds for a TD (John Richardson KICK)
- Q3 8:17EMU +15%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Line Latu for 36 yds for a TD (Chad Ryland KICK)
- Q3 8:39NIU +5%
John Richardson 34 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Eastern Michigan vs. Northern Illinois?
Eastern Michigan 45, Northern Illinois 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked NIU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| EMU | NIU | |
|---|---|---|
| 428 | Total yards | 337 |
| 235 | Passing yards | 99 |
| 193 | Rushing yards | 238 |
| 24 | First downs | 21 |
| 4-7 | 3rd down | 6-16 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 20/24 | Comp/Att | 12/26 |
| 9.8 | Yards per pass | 3.8 |
| 6.4 | Yards per rush | 5.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 4-45 | Penalties | 7-63 |
| 24:17 | Possession | 35:43 |
Costliest call
Q1 13:00 NIU punt on 4th & 2 at NIU 29. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.51 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:52NIUDaniel Crawford 9 Yd pass from Marcus Childers (John Richardson Kick)45–17
- Q4 9:33EMUJairus Grissom 3 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)45–10
- Q3 0:11EMUArthur Jackson III 22 Yd pass from Mike Glass III (Chad Ryland Kick)38–10
- Q3 2:05EMUChad Ryland 27 Yd Field Goal 31–10
- Q3 8:17EMULine Latu 36 Yd pass from Mike Glass III (Chad Ryland Kick)28–10
- Q3 8:39NIUJohn Richardson 34 Yd Field Goal 21–10
- Q3 11:37EMUShaq Vann 8 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)21–7
- Q2 6:33NIUMarcus Childers 8 Yd Run (John Richardson Kick)14–7
- Q2 11:41EMUArthur Jackson III 36 Yd pass from Mike Glass III (Chad Ryland Kick)14–0
- Q1 6:56EMUMike Glass III 1 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NIU Elo 1297, EMU Elo 1290 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NIU -2.7 (58% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#14 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #85 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds.
The 2019 upset archive →Northern Illinois leads 28–8–2 · 42% have been one-possession games
| EMU | NIU | |
|---|---|---|
| -11.1 (#104) | CORE overall | -15.1 (#110) |
| +2 / +13 | offense / defense | -8 / +7 |
| 2.64 | points / drive | 1.73 |
| 2.70 | allowed / drive | 2.41 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 32% |
| +6 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →