Florida vs. Michigan: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FLATeam statsMICH
- Q4 4:43FLAS. Patterson pass intercepted for a TD,C. Gardner-Johnson return for 30 yds for a TD, (E. McPherson KICK)41–15
- Q4 4:58MICHTEAM punt for -20 yds for a SAFETY34–15
- Q4 9:21FLAL. Perine run for 53 yds for a TD, (E. McPherson KICK)34–13
- Q4 12:16MICHJ. Moody 26 yd FG GOOD27–13
- Q3 2:34FLAJ. Scarlett run for 1 yd for a TD, (E. McPherson KICK)27–10
- Q3 8:06FLAF. Franks pass,to L. Perine for 5 yds for a TD, (E. McPherson KICK)20–10
- Q2 2:41FLAF. Franks run for 20 yds for a TD, (E. McPherson KICK)13–10
- Q2 5:56MICHJ. Moody 48 yd FG GOOD6–10
- Q2 12:22FLAE. McPherson 26 yd FG GOOD6–7
- Q1 2:03MICHS. Patterson pass,to D. Peoples-Jones for 9 yds for a TD, (J. Moody KICK)3–7
- Q1 5:37FLAE. McPherson 21 yd FG GOOD3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- FLA lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 18% explosive on a 37% success rate
- PassFeleipe Franks 13/23, 173 YDS, 1 TD
- RushLa'Mical Perine 6 CAR, 76 YDS, 1 TD
- RecVan Jefferson 4 REC, 64 YDS
- PassShea Patterson 22/36, 236 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushChristian Turner 7 CAR, 32 YDS
- RecNico Collins 5 REC, 80 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFLA up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 8:06FLA +28%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Lamical Perine for 5 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)
- Q2 2:41FLA +21%
Feleipe Franks run for 20 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)
- Q3 2:34FLA +19%
Jordan Scarlett run for 1 yd for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)
- Q1 2:03MICH +16%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 9 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)
- Q3 5:08FLA +9%
Jordan Scarlett run for 2 yds to the Mich 33
- Q3 10:00FLA +8%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Van Jefferson for 8 yds to the Mich 39
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida vs. Michigan?
Florida 41, Michigan 15.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MICH, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| FLA | MICH | |
|---|---|---|
| 427 | Total yards | 326 |
| 170 | Passing yards | 249 |
| 257 | Rushing yards | 77 |
| 15 | First downs | 18 |
| 8-16 | 3rd down | 6-15 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 14/24 | Comp/Att | 23/37 |
| 7.1 | Yards per pass | 6.7 |
| 6.4 | Yards per rush | 2.6 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 5-40 | Penalties | 4-22 |
| 31:19 | Possession | 28:41 |
Costliest call
Q2 10:08 MICH punt on 4th & 1 at MICH 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:43FLAS. Patterson pass intercepted for a TD,C. Gardner-Johnson return for 30 yds for a TD, (E. McPherson KICK)41–15
- Q4 4:58MICHTEAM punt for -20 yds for a SAFETY34–15
- Q4 9:21FLAL. Perine run for 53 yds for a TD, (E. McPherson KICK)34–13
- Q4 12:16MICHJ. Moody 26 yd FG GOOD27–13
- Q3 2:34FLAJ. Scarlett run for 1 yd for a TD, (E. McPherson KICK)27–10
- Q3 8:06FLAF. Franks pass,to L. Perine for 5 yds for a TD, (E. McPherson KICK)20–10
- Q2 2:41FLAF. Franks run for 20 yds for a TD, (E. McPherson KICK)13–10
- Q2 5:56MICHJ. Moody 48 yd FG GOOD6–10
- Q2 12:22FLAE. McPherson 26 yd FG GOOD6–7
- Q1 2:03MICHS. Patterson pass,to D. Peoples-Jones for 9 yds for a TD, (J. Moody KICK)3–7
- Q1 5:37FLAE. McPherson 21 yd FG GOOD3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MICH Elo 1966, FLA Elo 1675 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects MICH -11.6 (79% to win) — 7.1 points clear of MICH's market line of -4.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#26 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #77 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds.
The 2018 upset archive →| FLA | MICH | |
|---|---|---|
| +17.3 (#14) | CORE overall | +24.6 (#6) |
| +9 / -8 | offense / defense | +9 / -15 |
| 2.43 | points / drive | 2.73 |
| 1.56 | allowed / drive | 1.20 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| -4 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →