South Alabama vs. Georgia Southern: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USATeam statsGASO
- Q4 11:37GASODemarcus Godfrey 1 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)0–52
- Q3 5:03GASOWesley Fields 25 Yd pass from Kado Brown (Tyler Bass Kick)0–45
- Q3 10:58GASOMalik Henry 8 Yd pass from Shai Werts (Tyler Bass Kick)0–38
- Q2 0:00GASOTyler Bass 41 Yd Field Goal 0–31
- Q2 12:46GASOShai Werts 1 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)0–28
- Q1 2:00GASOWesley Fields 8 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)0–21
- Q1 7:17GASOL.A. Ramsby 8 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)0–14
- Q1 11:36GASOL.A. Ramsby 2 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- USA played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and GASO did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.7 vs 3rd & 6.1
- PassCole Garvin 8/28, 102 YDS, 1 INT
- RushDallas Davis 2 CAR, 13 YDS
- RecSam Harris 3 REC, 44 YDS
- PassKado Brown 4/4, 120 YDS, 1 TD
- RushShai Werts 15 CAR, 113 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDarion Anderson 2 REC, 71 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsGASO up 45 entering the 4th quarter. Across 103 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 7:17GASO +18%
L.A. Ramsby run for 8 yds for a TD, (Tyler Bass KICK)
- Q1 2:00GASO +13%
Wesley Fields run for 8 yds for a TD, (Tyler Bass KICK)
- Q2 12:46GASO +7%
Shai Werts run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Bass KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of South Alabama vs. Georgia Southern?
South Alabama 0, Georgia Southern 52.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked USA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| USA | GASO | |
|---|---|---|
| 195 | Total yards | 583 |
| 166 | Passing yards | 227 |
| 29 | Rushing yards | 356 |
| 10 | First downs | 26 |
| 2-13 | 3rd down | 7-16 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 16/37 | Comp/Att | 11/17 |
| 4.5 | Yards per pass | 13.4 |
| 1.8 | Yards per rush | 5.2 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-37 | Penalties | 5-45 |
| 20:49 | Possession | 39:11 |
Costliest call
Q2 10:00 USA go for it on 4th & 8 at GASO 13. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.79 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 11:37GASODemarcus Godfrey 1 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)0–52
- Q3 5:03GASOWesley Fields 25 Yd pass from Kado Brown (Tyler Bass Kick)0–45
- Q3 10:58GASOMalik Henry 8 Yd pass from Shai Werts (Tyler Bass Kick)0–38
- Q2 0:00GASOTyler Bass 41 Yd Field Goal 0–31
- Q2 12:46GASOShai Werts 1 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)0–28
- Q1 2:00GASOWesley Fields 8 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)0–21
- Q1 7:17GASOL.A. Ramsby 8 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)0–14
- Q1 11:36GASOL.A. Ramsby 2 Yd Run (Tyler Bass Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (GASO Elo 1122, USA Elo 1292 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects GASO +4.4 (40% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#1 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #72 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds.
The 2017 upset archive →Georgia Southern leads 8–2 · 40% have been one-possession games
| USA | GASO | |
|---|---|---|
| -20.7 (#120) | CORE overall | -16.7 (#110) |
| -16 / +4 | offense / defense | -7 / +9 |
| 1.37 | points / drive | 1.71 |
| 2.40 | allowed / drive | 2.42 |
| 39% | three-and-outs | 38% |
| +7 | pass over expected | -28 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →