Howard vs. UNLV: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Howard
▸
UNLV
Final
Sam Boyd Stadium
HOWATeam statsUNLV
449Total yards564
140Pass220
309Rush344
21First downs25
10-203rd down4-11
1Turnovers3
32:30Possession27:30
- Q4 7:34HOWACaylin Newton 4 Yd Run (Dakota Lebofsky Kick)43–40
- Q4 10:12UNLVLexington Thomas 3 Yd Run (Evan Pantels Kick)36–40
- Q4 14:09HOWAAnthony Philyaw 11 Yd Run (Caylin Newton Run for Two-Point Conversion)34–33
- Q3 1:17HOWAAnthony Philyaw 3 Yd Run (Dakota Lebofsky Kick)28–33
- Q3 6:45UNLVCharles Williams 1 Yd Run (Evan Pantels Kick)21–33
- Q3 12:20UNLVDevonte Boyd 25 Yd pass from Armani Rogers (Evan Pantels Kick)21–26
- Q2 0:00UNLVEvan Pantels 30 Yd Field Goal 21–19
- Q2 1:27UNLVLexington Thomas 1 Yd Run (Evan Pantels Kick)21–16
- Q2 5:56HOWADevin Rollins 75 Yd Fumble Return (Dakota Lebofsky Kick)21–9
- Q2 9:14UNLVEvan Pantels 26 Yd Field Goal 14–9
- Q2 12:56HOWAKyle Anthony 1 Yd pass from Caylin Newton (Dakota Lebofsky Kick)14–6
- Q1 5:36UNLVEvan Pantels 28 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q1 11:23UNLVEvan Pantels 44 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 13:26HOWACaylin Newton 52 Yd Run (Dakota Lebofsky Kick)7–0
How the model called it
Market line
UNLV −45
Against the number
HOWA covered
line UNLV −45
What the numbers say
- HOWA played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UNLV did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.3 vs 3rd & 5.6
Kickoff161 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
UNLV (top)HOWA (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: UNLV 0%
Closing line
UNLV −45
Closing total
—
Model line
—
Actual result
HOWA 43 – 40 UNLV
consensus, liveUNLV −45
Howard
- PassCaylin Newton 15/26, 140 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushCaylin Newton 21 CAR, 190 YDS, 2 TD
- RecAnthony Philyaw 3 REC, 62 YDS
UNLV
- PassArmani Rogers 11/19, 220 YDS, 1 TD
- RushLexington Thomas 21 CAR, 151 YDS, 2 TD
- RecDevonte Boyd 4 REC, 105 YDS, 1 TD
22.6sper snap · faster the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
159
Points / snap
0.52
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNLV up 5 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,967 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
72%
UNLV went on to win
A solid but not safe lead
FAQ
What was the final score of Howard vs. UNLV?
Howard 43, UNLV 40.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UNLV, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
HOWA
UNLV
37%
Success rate
57%
0.20
EPA / pass
0.29
0.17
EPA / rush
0.32
33%
Early-down success
61%
35%
Pass success
48%
38%
Rush success
61%
8%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
21%
25%
Stuffed rush rate
4%
32%
Pass rate
31%
8.3
Avg 3rd-down distance
5.6
HOWA
8.3 yards to go on 3rd down
92 scrimmage snaps
UNLV
5.6 yards to go on 3rd down
67 scrimmage snaps
| HOWA | UNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| 449 | Total yards | 564 |
| 140 | Passing yards | 220 |
| 309 | Rushing yards | 344 |
| 21 | First downs | 25 |
| 10-20 | 3rd down | 4-11 |
| 2-4 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 15/26 | Comp/Att | 11/21 |
| 5.4 | Yards per pass | 10.5 |
| 5.1 | Yards per rush | 7.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 10-96 | Penalties | 13-90 |
| 32:30 | Possession | 27:30 |
HOWA
8/8 with the model
nothing given up
UNLV
7/7 with the model
nothing given up
No fourth-down call in this game cost more than a rounding error.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishHOWA 5/14 scoring drives← own end zone →UNLV 9/16 scoring drives
HOWATD5 pl, 74 yds· opp 30Q1
UNLVFG5 pl, 18 yds· opp 20Q1
HOWAPUNT9 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q1
UNLVFG5 pl, 36 yds· opp 47Q1
HOWAPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· opp 35Q1
UNLVMISS6 pl, 12 yds· opp 37Q1
HOWATD13 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
UNLVFG7 pl, 61 yds· opp 35Q2
HOWAPUNT5 pl, 25 yds· opp 35Q2
UNLVTD4 pl, 43 yds· own 32Q2
UNLVTD11 pl, 69 yds· opp 35Q2
HOWAPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· opp 35Q2
UNLVFG5 pl, 54 yds· own 33Q2
UNLVPUNT3 pl, -8 yds· own 38Q3
HOWAPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 1Q3
UNLVTD1 pl, 25 yds· opp 25Q3
HOWADOWNS4 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q3
UNLVMISS4 pl, 3 yds· opp 34Q3
HOWAINT3 pl, 17 yds· own 31Q3
UNLVTD5 pl, 53 yds· own 47Q3
HOWATD14 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
UNLVFUM0 pl, 6 yds· own 28Q3
HOWATD8 pl, 34 yds· opp 34Q3
UNLVTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
HOWATD7 pl, 68 yds· opp 35Q4
UNLVPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· opp 35Q4
HOWADOWNS7 pl, 15 yds· opp 21Q4
UNLVFUM1 pl, 34 yds· own 6Q4
HOWAPUNT3 pl, -10 yds· opp 40Q4
UNLVEND3 pl, 48 yds· own 20Q4
- Q4 7:34HOWACaylin Newton 4 Yd Run (Dakota Lebofsky Kick)43–40
- Q4 10:12UNLVLexington Thomas 3 Yd Run (Evan Pantels Kick)36–40
- Q4 14:09HOWAAnthony Philyaw 11 Yd Run (Caylin Newton Run for Two-Point Conversion)34–33
- Q3 1:17HOWAAnthony Philyaw 3 Yd Run (Dakota Lebofsky Kick)28–33
- Q3 6:45UNLVCharles Williams 1 Yd Run (Evan Pantels Kick)21–33
- Q3 12:20UNLVDevonte Boyd 25 Yd pass from Armani Rogers (Evan Pantels Kick)21–26
- Q2 0:00UNLVEvan Pantels 30 Yd Field Goal 21–19
- Q2 1:27UNLVLexington Thomas 1 Yd Run (Evan Pantels Kick)21–16
- Q2 5:56HOWADevin Rollins 75 Yd Fumble Return (Dakota Lebofsky Kick)21–9
- Q2 9:14UNLVEvan Pantels 26 Yd Field Goal 14–9
- Q2 12:56HOWAKyle Anthony 1 Yd pass from Caylin Newton (Dakota Lebofsky Kick)14–6
- Q1 5:36UNLVEvan Pantels 28 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q1 11:23UNLVEvan Pantels 44 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 13:26HOWACaylin Newton 52 Yd Run (Dakota Lebofsky Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
The matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesHoward were +45 — a 0% shot
#4 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #1 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds.
The 2017 upset archive →Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →