New Mexico State vs. Texas State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NMSUTeam statsTXST
- Q4 7:26NMSULarry Rose III 77 Yd pass from Nick Jeanty (Parker Davidson Kick)31–21
- Q4 10:12NMSULarry Rose III 2 Yd Run (Parker Davidson Kick)24–21
- Q4 14:53TXSTRobert Lowe 21 Yd pass from Tyler Jones (Lumi Kaba Kick)17–21
- Q3 5:25NMSUClayton Granch 1 Yd pass from Nick Jeanty (Parker Davidson Kick)17–14
- Q2 1:39TXSTTyler Jones 8 Yd Run (Lumi Kaba Kick)10–14
- Q2 5:53TXSTTyler Jones 7 Yd Run (Lumi Kaba Kick)10–7
- Q2 9:59NMSUParker Davidson 27 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 11:22NMSULarry Rose III 22 Yd Run (Parker Davidson Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassNick Jeanty 24/45, 297 YDS, 2 TD
- RushLarry Rose III 31 CAR, 207 YDS, 2 TD
- RecLarry Rose III 2 REC, 85 YDS, 1 TD
- PassTyler Jones 21/36, 287 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushRobert Lowe 22 CAR, 88 YDS
- RecC.J. Best 6 REC, 74 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNMSU up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 10:12NMSU +40%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)
- Q4 7:26NMSU +31%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Larry Rose III for 77 yds for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)
- Q3 5:25NMSU +28%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Clayton Granch for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Davidson KICK)
- Q4 14:53TXST +26%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Robert Lowe for 21 yds for a TD, (Lumi Kaba KICK)
- Q4 8:33NMSU +20%
Nick Jeanty run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 23
- Q2 5:53TXST +19%
Tyler Jones run for 7 yds for a TD, (Lumi Kaba KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of New Mexico State vs. Texas State?
New Mexico State 31, Texas State 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TXST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| NMSU | TXST | |
|---|---|---|
| 527 | Total yards | 400 |
| 297 | Passing yards | 287 |
| 230 | Rushing yards | 113 |
| 26 | First downs | 20 |
| 13-23 | 3rd down | 7-15 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 24/45 | Comp/Att | 21/36 |
| 6.6 | Yards per pass | 8.0 |
| 4.8 | Yards per rush | 3.1 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 5-37 | Penalties | 4-30 |
| 32:29 | Possession | 27:31 |
Costliest call
Q4 10:12 TXST punt on 4th & 2 at midfield. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.01 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:26NMSULarry Rose III 77 Yd pass from Nick Jeanty (Parker Davidson Kick)31–21
- Q4 10:12NMSULarry Rose III 2 Yd Run (Parker Davidson Kick)24–21
- Q4 14:53TXSTRobert Lowe 21 Yd pass from Tyler Jones (Lumi Kaba Kick)17–21
- Q3 5:25NMSUClayton Granch 1 Yd pass from Nick Jeanty (Parker Davidson Kick)17–14
- Q2 1:39TXSTTyler Jones 8 Yd Run (Lumi Kaba Kick)10–14
- Q2 5:53TXSTTyler Jones 7 Yd Run (Lumi Kaba Kick)10–7
- Q2 9:59NMSUParker Davidson 27 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 11:22NMSULarry Rose III 22 Yd Run (Parker Davidson Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TXST Elo 1168, NMSU Elo 871 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TXST -14.3 (83% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#40 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #23 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds.
The 2015 upset archive →| NMSU | TXST | |
|---|---|---|
| -26.9 (#125) | CORE overall | -28.5 (#127) |
| -6 / +21 | offense / defense | -11 / +18 |
| 1.69 | points / drive | 1.61 |
| 3.12 | allowed / drive | 3.29 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 33% |
| +4 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →