Ole Miss vs. Texas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MISSTeam statsTEX
- Q4 8:42MISSOLE MISS Extra point GOOD.44–23
- Q4 8:42MISSOLE MISS rush for a touchdown.43–23
- Q3 0:09MISSOLE MISS punt return for a touchdown.37–23
- Q3 1:45MISSOLE MISS Extra point GOOD.31–23
- Q3 1:45MISSOLE MISS pass complete for a touchdown.31–23
- Q3 7:49MISSOLE MISS Extra point GOOD.24–23
- Q3 7:49MISSOLE MISS rush for a touchdown.23–23
- Q2 0:00MISSOLE MISS 52 yard field goal GOOD.17–23
- Q2 0:39TEXTEXAS 47 yard field goal GOOD.14–23
- Q2 6:08TEXTEXAS 30 yard field goal GOOD.14–20
- Q2 8:27TEXTEXAS Extra point GOOD.14–17
- Q2 8:27TEXTEXAS rush for a touchdown.14–16
- Q2 13:12TEXTEXAS 28 yard field goal GOOD.14–10
- Q1 3:50TEXTEXAS Extra point GOOD.14–7
- Q1 3:50TEXTEXAS pass complete for a touchdown.14–6
- Q1 8:26MISSOLE MISS Extra point GOOD.14–0
- Q1 8:26MISSOLE MISS pass complete for a touchdown.13–0
- Q1 12:22MISSOLE MISS Extra point GOOD.7–0
- Q1 12:22MISSOLE MISS rush for a touchdown.6–0
How the model called it
- PassBo Wallace 17/25, 177 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJeff Scott 19 CAR, 164 YDS, 1 TD
- RecLaquon Treadwell 5 REC, 45 YDS
- PassCase McCoy 24/36, 196 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJohnathan Gray 19 CAR, 91 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJaxon Shipley 6 REC, 83 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMISS up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,015 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 1:45MISS +39%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Evan Engram for 17 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 7:49MISS +22%
Bo Wallace rush for 15 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 8:27TEX +18%
Johnathan Gray rush for 8 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 0:09MISS +17%
Anthony Fera punt for 45 yards, returned by Jeff Scott for 73 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 12:22MISS +16%
Jeff Scott rush for 5 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 8:26MISS +15%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Donte Moncrief for 18 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Ole Miss vs. Texas?
Ole Miss 44, Texas 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TEX, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MISS | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| 449 | Total yards | 320 |
| 177 | Passing yards | 196 |
| 272 | Rushing yards | 124 |
| 28 | First downs | 20 |
| 5-10 | 3rd down | 4-15 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 17/27 | Comp/Att | 24/36 |
| 6.6 | Yards per pass | 5.4 |
| 6.0 | Yards per rush | 3.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-74 | Penalties | 7-50 |
| 27:58 | Possession | 31:33 |
Costliest call
Q3 12:39 TEX punt on 4th & 9 at MISS 40. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.44 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:42MISSOLE MISS Extra point GOOD.44–23
- Q4 8:42MISSOLE MISS rush for a touchdown.43–23
- Q3 0:09MISSOLE MISS punt return for a touchdown.37–23
- Q3 1:45MISSOLE MISS Extra point GOOD.31–23
- Q3 1:45MISSOLE MISS pass complete for a touchdown.31–23
- Q3 7:49MISSOLE MISS Extra point GOOD.24–23
- Q3 7:49MISSOLE MISS rush for a touchdown.23–23
- Q2 0:00MISSOLE MISS 52 yard field goal GOOD.17–23
- Q2 0:39TEXTEXAS 47 yard field goal GOOD.14–23
- Q2 6:08TEXTEXAS 30 yard field goal GOOD.14–20
- Q2 8:27TEXTEXAS Extra point GOOD.14–17
- Q2 8:27TEXTEXAS rush for a touchdown.14–16
- Q2 13:12TEXTEXAS 28 yard field goal GOOD.14–10
- Q1 3:50TEXTEXAS Extra point GOOD.14–7
- Q1 3:50TEXTEXAS pass complete for a touchdown.14–6
- Q1 8:26MISSOLE MISS Extra point GOOD.14–0
- Q1 8:26MISSOLE MISS pass complete for a touchdown.13–0
- Q1 12:22MISSOLE MISS Extra point GOOD.7–0
- Q1 12:22MISSOLE MISS rush for a touchdown.6–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TEX Elo 1649, MISS Elo 1604 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TEX -4.2 (62% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2013
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#50 of 93 in 2013 by biggest miss · #85 of 93 in 2013 by longest odds.
The 2013 upset archive →Texas leads 6–2 · 13% have been one-possession games
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →