Illinois State vs. North Alabama: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Illinois State0-1
▸
North Alabama0-1
Final
Braly Municipal Stadium
ILLITeam statsNORT
478Total yards411
153Pass328
325Rush83
20First downs18
6-153rd down4-14
2Turnovers2
30:31Possession29:29
- Q4 10:57NORTAri Patu 7 Yd Run (Scott Payne Kick)24–17
- Q3 0:11ILLIIan Wagner 21 Yd Field Goal 24–10
- Q3 6:00ILLITommy Rittenhouse 71 Yd Run (Ian Wagner Kick)21–10
- Q3 6:17NORTKobe Warden 15 Yd pass from Ari Patu (Scott Payne Kick)14–10
- Q2 11:42ILLITommy Rittenhouse 3 Yd Run (Ian Wagner Kick)14–3
- Q1 7:27NORTScott Payne 25 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 11:17ILLIMitch Bartol 18 Yd pass from Tommy Rittenhouse (Ian Wagner Kick)7–0
What the numbers say
- NORT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ILLI did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.2 vs 3rd & 4.7
- NORT lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 18% explosive on a 37% success rate
Kickoff149 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
NORT (top)ILLI (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NORT 0%
Illinois State
- PassTommy Rittenhouse 13/21, 142 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushWenkers Wright 26 CAR, 153 YDS
- RecDylan Lord 6 REC, 52 YDS
North Alabama
- PassAri Patu 21/36, 328 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJayvian Allen 14 CAR, 63 YDS
- RecTakairee Kenebrew 7 REC, 129 YDS
24.5sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
129
Points / snap
0.32
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsILLI up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,010 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
94%
ILLI went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Illinois State vs. North Alabama?
Illinois State 24, North Alabama 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked NORT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
ILLI
NORT
44%
Success rate
37%
-0.04
EPA / pass
0.24
0.47
EPA / rush
-0.22
44%
Early-down success
38%
37%
Pass success
52%
49%
Rush success
21%
14%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
18%
10%
Stuffed rush rate
28%
44%
Pass rate
52%
4.7
Avg 3rd-down distance
8.2
ILLI
4.7 yards to go on 3rd down
69 scrimmage snaps
NORT
8.2 yards to go on 3rd down
60 scrimmage snaps
| ILLI | NORT | |
|---|---|---|
| 478 | Total yards | 411 |
| 153 | Passing yards | 328 |
| 325 | Rushing yards | 83 |
| 20 | First downs | 18 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 4-14 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 16/26 | Comp/Att | 21/36 |
| 5.9 | Yards per pass | 9.1 |
| 6.9 | Yards per rush | 2.7 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 6-47 | Penalties | 4-28 |
| 30:31 | Possession | 29:29 |
ILLI
3/7 with the model
−1.2 pts · −0.0% win prob
NORT
7/8 with the model
−0.3 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q4 9:09 ILLI punt on 4th & 1 at ILLI 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishILLI 4/13 scoring drives← own end zone →NORT 3/13 scoring drives
ILLITD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
NORTFG9 pl, 67 yds· own 25Q1
ILLIPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 43Q1
NORTPUNT5 pl, 28 yds· own 8Q1
ILLIFUM4 pl, 22 yds· own 35Q1
NORTPUNT5 pl, 4 yds· own 43Q1
ILLITD9 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q2
NORTFUM7 pl, 51 yds· own 45Q2
ILLIPUNT5 pl, 13 yds· own 4Q2
NORTPUNT5 pl, 11 yds· own 42Q2
ILLIPUNT7 pl, 34 yds· own 20Q2
NORTINT3 pl, 9 yds· own 20Q2
ILLIINT3 pl, 18 yds· opp 26Q2
NORTEND1 pl, 13 yds· own 20Q2
NORTPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q3
ILLIPUNT4 pl, 9 yds· own 23Q3
NORTTD8 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q3
ILLITD1 pl, 71 yds· own 29Q3
NORTPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q3
ILLIFG13 pl, 83 yds· own 13Q3
NORTPUNT4 pl, 17 yds· own 20Q3
ILLIPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 20Q4
NORTTD4 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q4
ILLIPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q4
NORTPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 32Q4
ILLIMISS7 pl, 67 yds· own 24Q4
- Q4 10:57NORTAri Patu 7 Yd Run (Scott Payne Kick)24–17
- Q3 0:11ILLIIan Wagner 21 Yd Field Goal 24–10
- Q3 6:00ILLITommy Rittenhouse 71 Yd Run (Ian Wagner Kick)21–10
- Q3 6:17NORTKobe Warden 15 Yd pass from Ari Patu (Scott Payne Kick)14–10
- Q2 11:42ILLITommy Rittenhouse 3 Yd Run (Ian Wagner Kick)14–3
- Q1 7:27NORTScott Payne 25 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 11:17ILLIMitch Bartol 18 Yd pass from Tommy Rittenhouse (Ian Wagner Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →