Massachusetts vs. Army: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MASSTeam statsARMY
- Q4 5:01ARMYChamp Harris 36 Yd Run (Quinn Maretzki Kick)21–14
- Q3 7:33MASSKay'Ron Lynch-Adams 3 Yd Run (Taisun Phommachanh Pass to George Johnson III for Two-Point Conversion)21–7
- Q2 2:34ARMYBryson Daily 2 Yd Run (Quinn Maretzki Kick)13–7
- Q1 3:30MASSKay'Ron Lynch-Adams 9 Yd Run (Cameron Carson Kick)13–0
- Q1 11:32MASSKay'Ron Lynch-Adams 34 Yd Run (Cameron Carson PAT failed)6–0
How the model called it
- PassTaisun Phommachanh 17/23, 121 YDS
- RushKay'Ron Lynch-Adams 34 CAR, 234 YDS, 3 TD
- RecAnthony Simpson 7 REC, 36 YDS
- PassChamp Harris 6/8, 130 YDS
- RushKanye Udoh 15 CAR, 76 YDS
- RecTobi Olawole 2 REC, 57 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMASS up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,009 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 7:33MASS +33%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams 3 Yd Run (Taisun Phommachanh Pass to George Johnson III for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q2 2:34ARMY +23%
Bryson Daily run for 2 yds for a TD (Quinn Maretzki KICK)
- Q1 3:30MASS +21%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 9 yds for a TD (Cameron Carson KICK)
- Q4 5:01ARMY +17%
Champ Harris run for 36 yds for a TD (Quinn Maretzki KICK)
- Q3 1:29MASS +15%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 5 yds to the MASS 25
- Q4 4:55MASS +13%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for no gain to the MASS 21
FAQ
What was the final score of Massachusetts vs. Army?
Massachusetts 21, Army 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ARMY, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MASS | ARMY | |
|---|---|---|
| 352 | Total yards | 362 |
| 121 | Passing yards | 158 |
| 231 | Rushing yards | 204 |
| 19 | First downs | 19 |
| 7-12 | 3rd down | 6-12 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 17/23 | Comp/Att | 9/21 |
| 5.3 | Yards per pass | 7.5 |
| 6.2 | Yards per rush | 4.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 8-50 | Penalties | 1-12 |
| 31:37 | Possession | 28:23 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:06 MASS field goal on 4th & 3 at ARMY 36. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.67 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:01ARMYChamp Harris 36 Yd Run (Quinn Maretzki Kick)21–14
- Q3 7:33MASSKay'Ron Lynch-Adams 3 Yd Run (Taisun Phommachanh Pass to George Johnson III for Two-Point Conversion)21–7
- Q2 2:34ARMYBryson Daily 2 Yd Run (Quinn Maretzki Kick)13–7
- Q1 3:30MASSKay'Ron Lynch-Adams 9 Yd Run (Cameron Carson Kick)13–0
- Q1 11:32MASSKay'Ron Lynch-Adams 34 Yd Run (Cameron Carson PAT failed)6–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARMY Elo 1301, MASS Elo 926 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARMY -17.4 (87% to win) — 7.4 points clear of ARMY's market line of -10. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#73 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #34 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds.
The 2023 upset archive →| MASS | ARMY | |
|---|---|---|
| -18.3 (#120) | CORE overall | -15.8 (#111) |
| -1 / +17 | offense / defense | -7 / +9 |
| 1.54 | points / drive | 1.59 |
| 3.24 | allowed / drive | 2.22 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| +1 | pass over expected | -25 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →