#14Bo Wallace

QB·Ole Miss·2014 20135.5 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Bo Wallace is a 2-year Clutch Passer for Ole Miss. Bo's 2014 season ranks in the 23th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 441 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Bo Wallace's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2014 Production

Passing

229/381 Comp/Att3194 Pass yards22 Pass TD14 INT60.1% Comp %

Rushing

199 Rush yards5 Rush TD121 Carries1.6 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2014 · vs QB peers

Efficiency23
Volume100
Dual-Threat0
Consistency64
Clutch99

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)23th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency64th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.25 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.80 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Louisiana (SP+ 2).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsBoise State	W35-13	11.6	25/36	387	4	3	51.7	13	0	-0.07
2	@Vanderbilt	W41-3	-4.3	23/30	320	1	0	88.7	1	0	0.52
3	vsLouisiana	W56-15	2.2	23/28	316	4	1	91.5	2	0	0.80
5	vsMemphis	W24-3	5.6	22/37	248	2	2	35.5	-9	0	0.12
6	vsAlabama	W23-17	34.3	18/31	251	3	0	60.0	32	0	0.28
7	@Texas A&M	W35-20	20.2	13/19	178	1	0	86.2	50	2	0.32
8	vsTennessee	W34-3	12.2	13/28	199	2	0	21.0	33	0	0.21
9	@LSU	L7-10	21.5	14/33	176	1	1	27.7	40	0	-0.07
10	vsAuburn	L31-35	24.2	28/40	339	2	0	52.6	56	1	0.12
11	vsPresbyterian	W48-0	—	11/15	140	2	1	66.3	15	1	0.31
13	@Arkansas	L0-30	12.2	16/31	235	0	2	8.2	-17	0	0.02
14	vsMississippi State	W31-17	22.2	13/30	296	0	1	40.0	-3	1	0.15
1	vsTCU	L3-42	23.3	10/23	109	0	3	0.9	-14	0	-0.07

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

54.0%

Passing plays

88.5%

Rushing plays

20.5%

Standard downs

44.4%

Passing downs

74.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.08
Passing downs: 0.37
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.29 / -0.14

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 — 2014 · 25 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2013	Ole Miss	2.3	0.225	—	104.4
2014	Ole Miss	5.5	0.400	+0.18	181.0

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.