Wisconsin vs. Minnesota: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WISTeam statsMINN
- Q3 0:10WISRiley Nowakowski 5 Yd pass from Tanner Mordecai (Nathanial Vakos Kick)28–14
- Q3 9:24WISBraelon Allen 4 Yd Run (Nathanial Vakos Kick)21–14
- Q2 2:38WISWill Pauling 11 Yd pass from Tanner Mordecai (Nathanial Vakos Kick)14–14
- Q2 4:30MINNDaniel Jackson 7 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Dragan Kesich Kick)7–14
- Q2 13:04WISBraelon Allen 5 Yd Run (Nathanial Vakos Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:21MINNJordan Nubin 1 Yd Run (Dragan Kesich Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MINN played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and WIS did not face the same ones. 3rd & 6.5 vs 3rd & 4.5
- PassTanner Mordecai 14/22, 145 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushBraelon Allen 26 CAR, 165 YDS, 2 TD
- RecChimere Dike 2 REC, 46 YDS
- PassAthan Kaliakmanis 16/28, 167 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJordan Nubin 24 CAR, 93 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDaniel Jackson 9 REC, 121 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWIS up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,011 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 9:24WIS +24%
Braelon Allen run for 4 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
- Q2 4:30MINN +23%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 7 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)
- Q2 2:38WIS +23%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Will Pauling for 11 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
- Q2 13:04WIS +20%
Braelon Allen run for 5 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
- Q1 12:21MINN +18%
Jordan Nubin run for 1 yd for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)
- Q3 0:10WIS +15%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Riley Nowakowski for 5 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Wisconsin vs. Minnesota?
Wisconsin 28, Minnesota 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WIS) was correct.
| WIS | MINN | |
|---|---|---|
| 412 | Total yards | 286 |
| 145 | Passing yards | 167 |
| 267 | Rushing yards | 119 |
| 21 | First downs | 17 |
| 7-14 | 3rd down | 5-13 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 14/22 | Comp/Att | 16/28 |
| 6.6 | Yards per pass | 6.0 |
| 6.1 | Yards per rush | 3.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 3-45 | Penalties | 3-30 |
| 30:25 | Possession | 29:35 |
Costliest call
Q1 5:13 WIS punt on 4th & 1 at WIS 28. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.05 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 0:10WISRiley Nowakowski 5 Yd pass from Tanner Mordecai (Nathanial Vakos Kick)28–14
- Q3 9:24WISBraelon Allen 4 Yd Run (Nathanial Vakos Kick)21–14
- Q2 2:38WISWill Pauling 11 Yd pass from Tanner Mordecai (Nathanial Vakos Kick)14–14
- Q2 4:30MINNDaniel Jackson 7 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Dragan Kesich Kick)7–14
- Q2 13:04WISBraelon Allen 5 Yd Run (Nathanial Vakos Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:21MINNJordan Nubin 1 Yd Run (Dragan Kesich Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MINN Elo 1502, WIS Elo 1598 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MINN +1.4 (47% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesWisconsin leads 63–62–8 · Minnesota has won 2 straight · 44% have been one-possession games
| WIS | MINN | |
|---|---|---|
| +7.4 (#38) | CORE overall | -5.6 (#88) |
| +1 / -7 | offense / defense | -6 / -0 |
| 1.95 | points / drive | 1.99 |
| 1.71 | allowed / drive | 2.44 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| +4 | pass over expected | -6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →