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Northern Arizona

In progress. College basketball is still being built and is not in the navigation. The ratings are ours and are shown with the date they were fitted; they are not graded in public.

Big Sky · 14-19 · AdjEM -13.8, 314 of 362 nationally.

2023-24 seasonthrough ratings as of 2024-04-0824 weekly snapshots

Adjusted ratingas of 2024-04-08

Every team →
AdjEM
-13.8314 of 362
AdjO
95.9310 of 362
AdjD
109.7300 of 362
AdjT
71.1111 of 362

Northern Arizona went from -8.0 (#266) on 2023-11-05 to -13.8 (#314) on 2024-04-08, peaking at -6.6 (#250) on 2023-12-18.

AdjEM in each weekly snapshot this season; the dashed line is an average D1 team (0).

2023-11-052024-04-08

Four factorsraw season rates · 33 complete games

Leaderboards →
eFG%
49.3%245
TOV%
17.5%290
OREB%
22.5%306
FTA/FGA
31.1%228
Opp eFG%
52.9%305
Opp TOV%
16.0%172
DREB%
71.3%258
Opp FTA/FGA
37.4%291

Résumé14-19 · against the ratings of 2024-04-08

Schedule strength
-3.6244 of 362
Non-conference
-1.5237 of 362
Luck
+13.6%6 of 362
Wins above bubble
-13.9277 of 362
Quad 1
0-3
Quad 2
1-0
Quad 3
2-9
Quad 4
11-7

Quadrants use the selection committee's boundaries (Quad 1 is a home game against the top 30, a neutral one against the top 50, or a road game against the top 75) applied to our ranking, not to the NCAA's NET, so they will not match a NET team sheet game for game. Luck and wins above bubble compare the record with today's ratings; they are not a record of our projections.

Players13 who played · most minutes first

National leaders →
PlayerGMPGPPGRPGAPGeFG%TS%USG%3P%FT%
Trent McLaughlinG3334.916.63.21.947.8%52.0%26.8%32.9%77.0%
Oakland FortG3330.610.03.83.043.6%47.4%21.3%30.8%79.7%
Jayden JacksonG3329.510.24.22.052.5%57.2%18.2%21.2%75.2%
Liam LloydG3129.16.24.33.342.5%43.6%16.8%27.4%52.4%
Carson BashamF3324.612.46.71.258.7%59.0%26.3%0.0%57.0%
Diego CampisanoF3318.76.32.40.560.1%62.0%15.6%42.0%86.4%
C.J. FordG3113.12.10.81.036.4%39.8%12.4%31.0%59.1%
Rockwell ReynoldsF298.42.71.70.355.4%56.3%18.3%—57.7%
Ryan AbelmanG267.21.01.10.327.8%32.2%12.9%15.4%83.3%
Arman MadiG207.51.80.70.361.4%67.3%11.6%53.8%90.0%
Isaiah KaiG176.91.10.50.435.3%45.3%13.5%0.0%100.0%
Tichyque MusakaF193.31.00.80.052.8%46.6%21.2%50.0%0.0%
Jack WistrcillF113.02.01.01.00.0%33.9%11.7%0.0%100.0%

Season totals for every game played, from ESPN's statistics feed. In seasons before 2025-26 a roster can be missing a player or hold one who was elsewhere; usage is blank where the players listed do not add up to the team's minutes.

Games14-19

“Ours” is our projected margin for Northern Arizona, from the snapshot dated before each game. Games before the season's first snapshot have none.

DateOpponentQuadResultOurs
11-06@UConnQ1#1L 52-95-27.4
11-12@Grand CanyonQ1#55L 55-89-14.6
11-15@Seattle UQ2#110W 62-60-14.2
11-17nPurdue Fort WayneQ3#165L 67-77-8.1
11-18nVMIQ4#357W 78-69+0.6
11-21@Hawai'iQ3#158L 61-70-14.2
11-29@UC Santa BarbaraQ3#178L 59-70-12.9
12-02vsPacificQ4#356W 78-58+6.5
12-06@Abilene ChristianQ3#229W 78-76-7.3
12-09@Incarnate WordQ4#350W 76-75+1.8
12-16vsSouthern UtahQ4#238W 76-74+1.4
12-20@San FranciscoQ1#53L 51-91-18.2
12-30@Northern ColoradoQ3#204L 77-92-5.4
01-03@OmahaQ4#270L 55-81-3.9
01-06vsNorth DakotaQ4#247W 74-73+4.8
01-11@Montana StateQ3#188L 50-79-8.9
01-13@MontanaQ3#157L 47-90-14.3
01-18vsPortland StateQ4#252W 84-65-4.3
01-20vsSacramento StateQ4#313W 70-61+1.5
01-25@IdahoQ4#323W 75-60-3.2
01-27@Eastern WashingtonQ3#150L 70-85-17.3
02-01vsWeber StateQ4#163L 70-72-7.5
02-03vsIdaho StateQ4#259L 79-81+0.5
02-08vsMontanaQ3#157L 66-94-6.0
02-10vsMontana StateQ4#188W 76-71-3.2
02-15@Sacramento StateQ4#313W 73-58-2.5
02-17@Portland StateQ4#252L 68-83-8.8
02-22vsEastern WashingtonQ3#150W 78-71-8.6
02-24vsIdahoQ4#323L 76-86+3.2
02-29@Idaho StateQ4#259W 92-88-8.0
03-02@Weber StateQ3#163L 58-85-13.3
03-04vsNorthern ColoradoQ4#204L 74-82-3.3
03-09nIdaho StateQ4#259L 60-68-4.5

How this is measured

Ranks are out of 362 rated teams, 1 = best (for AdjD and the defensive factors, 1 = allowed the least). The four factors are raw season rates from box scores.

Every projection uses a rating snapshot dated before the game — the snapshot column shows which. A snapshot dated on or after a game already contains its result, so it is never used to project it; a game before the season's first snapshot gets no number at all. Projected margin is (this team's AdjEM − the opponent's ± home advantage) × expected possessions ÷ 100.