UAB vs. Illinois: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UABTeam statsILL
- Q4 0:09UABRyder Burton 5 Yd Run (Jonah Delange Kick)23–42
- Q4 5:48ILLIsmael Kante 59 Yd Interception Return (Ethan Moczulski Kick)16–42
- Q4 12:25ILLKatin Houser 6 Yd Run (Ethan Moczulski Kick)16–35
- Q3 3:58UABJonah Delange 35 Yd Field Goal 16–28
- Q3 10:15ILLCollin Dixon 14 Yd pass from Katin Houser (Ethan Moczulski Kick)13–28
- Q2 0:00ILLTy Robinson 54 Yd pass from Katin Houser (Ethan Moczulski Kick)13–21
- Q2 0:18UABRoderick Robinson II 10 Yd pass from Ryder Burton (Jonah Delange Kick)13–14
- Q2 5:50UABJonah Delange 23 Yd Field Goal 6–14
- Q1 1:18ILLCa'Lil Valentine 51 Yd Run (Ethan Moczulski Kick)3–14
- Q1 2:24UABJonah Delange 26 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 7:55ILLCollin Dixon 18 Yd pass from Katin Houser (Ethan Moczulski Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UAB played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ILL did not face the same ones. 3rd & 6.5 vs 3rd & 3.9
What actually decided Illinois's win over UAB — beyond the final score.
Katin Houser scored 24 of Illinois's points. They beat UAB, 42-23 at Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL). Illinois was the steadier side of a 19-point win. Katin Houser threw for 182 yards on 17 attempts with three touchdowns and ran three times for 29 yards and one score.
- PassRyder Burton 18/31, 219 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushRod Robinson II 14 CAR, 59 YDS
- RecCJ Smith 2 REC, 57 YDS
- PassKatin Houser 13/17, 182 YDS, 3 TD
- RushCa'Lil Valentine 11 CAR, 88 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCollin Dixon 6 REC, 70 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsILL up 12 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,519 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 0:18UAB +17%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 R.Burton pass complete short middle to #2 R.Robinson II caught at ILL02, for 10 yards to the ILL00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 0:00ILL +15%
Ty Robinson 54 Yd pass from Katin Houser (Ethan Moczulski Kick)
- Q1 7:55ILL +12%
Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short left to #17 C.Dixon caught at UAB00, for 18 yards to the UAB00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 1:18ILL +9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 C.Valentine rush middle for 51 yards gain to the UAB00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 10:15ILL +7%
Shotgun #4 K.Houser pass complete short left to #17 C.Dixon caught at UAB03, for 14 yards to the UAB00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 2:24UAB +5%
#39 J.Delange field goal attempt from 26 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of UAB vs. Illinois?
UAB 23, Illinois 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ILL) was correct.
| UAB | ILL | |
|---|---|---|
| 413 | Total yards | 332 |
| 219 | Passing yards | 182 |
| 194 | Rushing yards | 150 |
| 24 | First downs | 17 |
| 10-19 | 3rd down | 3-6 |
| 3-4 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 18/31 | Comp/Att | 13/17 |
| 7.1 | Yards per pass | 10.7 |
| 4.0 | Yards per rush | 5.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 9-69 | Penalties | 1-3 |
| 41:03 | Possession | 18:57 |
Costliest call
Q2 5:50 UAB field goal on 4th & 4 at ILL 4. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.34 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:09UABRyder Burton 5 Yd Run (Jonah Delange Kick)23–42
- Q4 5:48ILLIsmael Kante 59 Yd Interception Return (Ethan Moczulski Kick)16–42
- Q4 12:25ILLKatin Houser 6 Yd Run (Ethan Moczulski Kick)16–35
- Q3 3:58UABJonah Delange 35 Yd Field Goal 16–28
- Q3 10:15ILLCollin Dixon 14 Yd pass from Katin Houser (Ethan Moczulski Kick)13–28
- Q2 0:00ILLTy Robinson 54 Yd pass from Katin Houser (Ethan Moczulski Kick)13–21
- Q2 0:18UABRoderick Robinson II 10 Yd pass from Ryder Burton (Jonah Delange Kick)13–14
- Q2 5:50UABJonah Delange 23 Yd Field Goal 6–14
- Q1 1:18ILLCa'Lil Valentine 51 Yd Run (Ethan Moczulski Kick)3–14
- Q1 2:24UABJonah Delange 26 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 7:55ILLCollin Dixon 18 Yd pass from Katin Houser (Ethan Moczulski Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ILL Elo 1563, UAB Elo 1443 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ILL -12 (77% to win) — 14.0 points clear of UAB's market line of -26. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UAB | ILL | |
|---|---|---|
| -5.8 (#92) | CORE overall | +6.7 (#45) |
| +3 / +9 | offense / defense | +7 / +1 |
| -18 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Katin Houser produced four of Illinois's seven explosive plays
What actually decided Illinois's win over UAB — beyond the final score.
The standouts
Katin Houser threw for 182 yards on 17 attempts with three touchdowns and ran three times for 29 yards and one score — three of them from inside the 20 and a hand in four plays of 15 yards or more. Collin Dixon caught six passes for 70 yards, two of them for touchdowns — two of them from inside the 20. Ca'Lil Valentine ran 11 times for 88 yards and one score. For UAB, Ryder Burton threw for 219 yards on 31 attempts with one touchdown and ran 12 times for 38 yards and one score — that score from inside the 20, seven third-down conversions and a hand in five plays of 15 yards or more. Braylon McReynolds ran 13 times for 56 yards and caught two passes for 25 yards. Roderick Robinson II ran 14 times for 59 yards and caught two passes for 14 yards, one of them for a touchdown — that score from inside the 20. Ean Rhea was the disruptive one for Illinois: 1 sack, 2 TFLs, 4.5 tackles.
The plays that turned it
It came down to a few snaps. Ryder Burton's 42-yard throw to C.J. Smith on 3rd-and-7 at Q1 03:26. Then Ca'Lil Valentine's 51-yard run for a touchdown on 2nd-and-3 at Q1 01:18. Later, Ryder Burton's 15-yard throw to C.J. Smith on 3rd-and-5 at Q4 09:50.
How it unfolded
Illinois struck first through Katin Houser, led 21-13 at the half and the final points came on a late score by Ryder Burton.
Against the line
The closing line had Illinois -25.5. UAB covered. The total was 54.5; the teams combined for 65, an over. Ryder Burton accounted for 12 of UAB's points.
The takeaway
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
A solid, earned win for Illinois; UAB is left to clean up the details that cost it.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →