UTSA vs. UAB Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where UTSA gets at UAB: 18th at staying on schedule through the air, against a unit 131st at keeping opponents off schedule through the air. Where UAB gets at UTSA: 5th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 128th at keeping everything in front of them. UTSA is also 22nd at turning trips inside the 40 into points, against a unit 131st.
How
UTSAattacks
UAB
- 1
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
UTSA#18 of 138UAB#131 of 138 - 2
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
UTSA#22 of 138UAB#131 of 138 - 3
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
UTSA#28 of 138UAB#136 of 138
HowUABattacksUTSA
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
UAB#5 of 138UTSA#128 of 138
The two teams
UTSA
UTSA is in year 7 under Jeff Traylor, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 17th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 128th at keeping everything in front of them.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.5%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −15.7% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
UTSA has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#17projected
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#18projected
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#22projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#128projected
UAB
UAB is in year 1 under Alex Mortensen. The strengths are offensive, led by 5th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 136th on early downs defensively, and they are 134th at holding the line of scrimmage.
UAB has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#5projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensefirst and second down#136projected
- Defensethe push the line gets#134projected
- Defensethrowing it#133projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UAB Elo 1406, UTSA Elo 1530 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UAB +2.9 (43% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
UTSA36th131stUABUAB104th95thUTSAThrough the air
UTSA50th7thUABUAB124th88thUTSAOn the ground
UTSA48th30thUABUAB118th127thUTSAStaying on the field
UTSA123rd116thUABUAB28th108thUTSATaking care of it
UTSA1st118thUABUAB31st6thUTSA
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesThe series is level at 4–4 · UTSA has won 3 straight · 50% have been one-possession games
| UTSA | UAB | |
|---|---|---|
| +4.7 (#52) | CORE overall | -5.8 (#92) |
| +3 / -2 | offense / defense | +3 / +9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win UTSA vs. UAB?
Gridpex's model favors UTSA with a 57% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for UTSA vs. UAB?
The model projects UTSA by 2.9.
What time is UTSA vs. UAB and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Protective Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →