Navy vs. UAB Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Navy gets at UAB: 2nd at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 134th at stuffing runs at the line. Where UAB gets at Navy: 5th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 127th at keeping everything in front of them. Navy is also 11th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 122nd.
How
NAVYattacks
UAB
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
NAVY#2 of 138UAB#134 of 138 - 2
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
NAVY#11 of 138UAB#122 of 138 - 3
Run it
running it · projected
NAVY#21 of 138UAB#129 of 138
HowUABattacksNAVY
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
UAB#5 of 138NAVY#127 of 138 - 2
Throw it
throwing it · projected
UAB#54 of 138NAVY#131 of 138 - 3
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
UAB#71 of 138NAVY#132 of 138
The two teams
Navy
Navy runs it: Brian Newberry's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 3 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 2nd at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 132nd at generating havoc, and they are 131st at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+5.3%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −29.5% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Navy has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#2projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#11projected
- Offenserunning it#21projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#132projected
- Offensehitting chunk plays#131projected
- Defensethrowing it#131projected
UAB
UAB is in year 1 under Alex Mortensen. The strengths are offensive, led by 5th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 136th on early downs defensively, and they are 134th at holding the line of scrimmage.
UAB has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#5projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensefirst and second down#136projected
- Defensethe push the line gets#134projected
- Defensethrowing it#133projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UAB Elo 1406, NAVY Elo 1550 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UAB -6.8 (67% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
NAVY45th131stUABUAB104th111thNAVYThrough the air
NAVY137th7thUABUAB124th73rdNAVYOn the ground
NAVY1st30thUABUAB118th7thNAVYStaying on the field
NAVY16th116thUABUAB28th27thNAVYTaking care of it
NAVY1st118thUABUAB31st118thNAVY
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| NAVY | UAB | |
|---|---|---|
| -8.1 (#101) | CORE overall | -5.8 (#92) |
| -2 / +6 | offense / defense | +3 / +9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Navy vs. UAB?
Gridpex's model favors UAB with a 67% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Navy vs. UAB?
The model projects UAB by 6.8.
What time is Navy vs. UAB and what channel is it on?
Fri, Sep 25, 7:00 PM ET, at Protective Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →