USC vs. Indiana Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Market vs our model
we are 6.9 toward 
USC
| Market | Our model | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread |  IU −10 | IU −3.1 |
| IU win | 79% | 60% |
Calibrated against results, not against the closing line. Read this as our confidence, not as an edge over the market.
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where Indiana gets at USC: 32nd at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 97th at keeping everything in front of them. USC projects no clear way in against Indiana. Indiana is also 7th in the push up front, against a unit 46th.
HowIUattacksUSC
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · 38% this season, 1 game
IU1.55#32 of 138USC1.42#97 of 138 - 2
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected · 1 game in
IU3.47#7 of 138USC2.22#46 of 138 - 3
Throw it
throwing it · projected · 1 game in
IU+1.41#3 of 138USC+0.50#37 of 138
The two teams
USC
USC throws it: Lincoln Riley's offenses have been pass-leaning across 9 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 1st at throwing it. The way in is 114th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+2.0%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −24.9% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
USC has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 25% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Offensethrowing it+0.87#1 of 138
- Offensefirst and second down62%#2 of 138
- Offensesurviving second and twelve50%#2 of 138
Soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.11#114 of 138
Indiana
Indiana is in year 3 under Curt Cignetti, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 3rd at throwing it. The way in is 125th at keeping everything in front of them.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+0.5%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −29.4% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Indiana has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 17% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensethrowing it+1.41#3 of 138
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground23%#4 of 138
- Defensegetting stopped at the line15.4%#4 of 138
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.56#125 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (IU Elo 2113, USC Elo 1837 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects IU -3.1 (60% to win) — 6.9 points clear of USC's market line of -10. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
USC27th15thIUIU11th86thUSCThrough the air
USC10th16thIUIU78th49thUSCOn the ground
USC66th31stIUIU33rd49thUSCStaying on the field
USC3rd33rdIUIU9th51stUSCTaking care of it
USC104th76thIUIU21st76thUSC
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| USC | IU | |
|---|---|---|
| +26.7 (#9) | CORE overall | +22.3 (#12) |
| +20 / -6 | offense / defense | +14 / -8 |
| 4.41 | points / drive | 5.78 |
| 1.57 | allowed / drive | 1.78 |
| 4% | three-and-outs | 11% |
| +3 | pass over expected | -7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win USC vs. Indiana?
Gridpex's model favors Indiana with a 60% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for USC vs. Indiana?
The model projects Indiana by 3.1.
What time is USC vs. Indiana and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN).
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →