Texas Southern vs. UTEP: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TEXATeam statsUTEP
- Q4 0:48UTEPRaymond Moore III 79 Yd Run (Carlos Arreola PAT failed)10–51
- Q4 9:40UTEPCarlos Arreola 35 Yd Field Goal 10–45
- Q3 6:28UTEPTavorus Jones 33 Yd Run (Carlos Arreola Kick)10–42
- Q3 10:19UTEPCarver Cheeks 13 Yd pass from EJ Colson Jr. (Carlos Arreola Kick)10–35
- Q3 12:04UTEPCash Cheeks 0 Yd Fumble Recovery (Carlos Arreola Kick)10–28
- Q2 0:37UTEPCash Cheeks 13 Yd pass from EJ Colson Jr. (Carlos Arreola Kick)10–21
- Q2 5:09UTEPEJ Colson Jr. 3 Yd Run (Carlos Arreola Kick)10–14
- Q2 12:05TEXAMiguel Arana III 43 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 4:55TEXAAthean Renfro Jr. 16 Yd Run (Miguel Arana III Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:32UTEPKam Thomas 83 Yd pass from EJ Colson Jr. (Carlos Arreola Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = TEXA ahead, below = UTEP ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
- PassCam'Ron McCoy 11/17, 85 YDS, 1 INT
- RushAthean Renfro Jr. 13 CAR, 45 YDS, 1 TD
- RecXavier Phipps 3 REC, 31 YDS
- PassEJ Colson Jr. 14/21, 239 YDS, 4 TD
- RushTavorus Jones 16 CAR, 104 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKam Thomas 2 REC, 92 YDS, 1 TD
FAQ
What was the final score of Texas Southern vs. UTEP?
Texas Southern 10, UTEP 51.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UTEP) was correct.
| TEXA | UTEP | |
|---|---|---|
| 211 | Total yards | 491 |
| 99 | Passing yards | 239 |
| 112 | Rushing yards | 252 |
| 13 | First downs | 21 |
| 6-17 | 3rd down | 5-10 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 13/22 | Comp/Att | 14/21 |
| 4.5 | Yards per pass | 11.4 |
| 2.8 | Yards per rush | 7.6 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 14-112 | Penalties | 4-46 |
| 36:36 | Possession | 23:24 |
- Q4 0:48UTEPRaymond Moore III 79 Yd Run (Carlos Arreola PAT failed)10–51
- Q4 9:40UTEPCarlos Arreola 35 Yd Field Goal 10–45
- Q3 6:28UTEPTavorus Jones 33 Yd Run (Carlos Arreola Kick)10–42
- Q3 10:19UTEPCarver Cheeks 13 Yd pass from EJ Colson Jr. (Carlos Arreola Kick)10–35
- Q3 12:04UTEPCash Cheeks 0 Yd Fumble Recovery (Carlos Arreola Kick)10–28
- Q2 0:37UTEPCash Cheeks 13 Yd pass from EJ Colson Jr. (Carlos Arreola Kick)10–21
- Q2 5:09UTEPEJ Colson Jr. 3 Yd Run (Carlos Arreola Kick)10–14
- Q2 12:05TEXAMiguel Arana III 43 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 4:55TEXAAthean Renfro Jr. 16 Yd Run (Miguel Arana III Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:32UTEPKam Thomas 83 Yd pass from EJ Colson Jr. (Carlos Arreola Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects UTEP -25.2 (93% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →