Wyoming vs. UTEP Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where UTEP gets at Wyoming: 1st at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 41st at keeping everything in front of them. Wyoming projects no clear way in against UTEP.
How
UTEPattacks
WYO
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
UTEP#1 of 138WYO#41 of 138
The two teams
Wyoming
Wyoming is in year 3 under Jay Sawvel. The way in is 128th at surviving second and twelve, and they are 128th at turning trips inside the 40 into points.
Wyoming has played 2 games against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#128projected
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#128projected
- Offensethrowing it#127projected
UTEP
UTEP is in year 3 under Scotty Walden. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 1st at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 137th at staying on schedule through the air, and they are 137th on first and second down.
UTEP has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#1projected
- Defensehitting chunk plays#27projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#137projected
- Offensefirst and second down#137projected
- Offensethe push the line gets#137projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UTEP Elo 1163, WYO Elo 1300 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UTEP +3.9 (41% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
WYO117th71stUTEPUTEP60th104thWYOThrough the air
WYO127th42ndUTEPUTEP119th95thWYOOn the ground
WYO86th94thUTEPUTEP57th97thWYOStaying on the field
WYO129th102ndUTEPUTEP121st97thWYOTaking care of it
WYO133rd46thUTEPUTEP75th76thWYO
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| WYO | UTEP | |
|---|---|---|
| -12.9 (#116) | CORE overall | -16.7 (#128) |
| -10 / +3 | offense / defense | -13 / +4 |
| 1.00 | points / drive | -0.64 |
| 3.50 | allowed / drive | 4.00 |
| 50% | three-and-outs | 36% |
| -16 | pass over expected | -10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Wyoming vs. UTEP?
Gridpex's model favors Wyoming with a 60% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Wyoming vs. UTEP?
The model projects Wyoming by 3.9.
What time is Wyoming vs. UTEP and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Sun Bowl.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →