UTEP vs. Air Force Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where UTEP gets at Air Force: 1st at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 119th at keeping everything in front of them. Where Air Force gets at UTEP: 5th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 98th at generating havoc. Air Force is also 49th at turning trips inside the 40 into points, against a unit 99th.
How
UTEPattacks
AF
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
UTEP#1 of 138AF#119 of 138
HowAFattacksUTEP
- 1
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
AF#5 of 138UTEP#98 of 138 - 2
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
AF#49 of 138UTEP#99 of 138 - 3
Throw it
throwing it · projected
AF#44 of 138UTEP#90 of 138
The two teams
UTEP
UTEP is in year 3 under Scotty Walden. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 1st at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 137th at staying on schedule through the air, and they are 137th on first and second down.
UTEP has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#1projected
- Defensehitting chunk plays#27projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#137projected
- Offensefirst and second down#137projected
- Offensethe push the line gets#137projected
Air Force
Air Force runs it: Troy Calhoun's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 11 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 1st at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 138th at keeping opponents off schedule through the air, and they are 138th at defending the run.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+1.2%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −27.8% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Air Force has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#1projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#5projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensestaying on schedule through the air#138projected
- Defenserunning it#138projected
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#137projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (AF Elo 1423, UTEP Elo 1163 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects AF -22.5 (93% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
UTEP60th52ndAFAF81st71stUTEPThrough the air
UTEP120th23rdAFAF134th42ndUTEPOn the ground
UTEP58th52ndAFAF5th93rdUTEPStaying on the field
UTEP121st43rdAFAF29th103rdUTEPTaking care of it
UTEP74th46thAFAF21st46thUTEP
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UTEP | AF | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.7 (#128) | CORE overall | -4.1 (#85) |
| -13 / +4 | offense / defense | +5 / +9 |
| -0.64 | points / drive | 3.11 |
| 4.00 | allowed / drive | 2.82 |
| 36% | three-and-outs | 33% |
| -10 | pass over expected | -37 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win UTEP vs. Air Force?
Gridpex's model favors Air Force with a 93% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for UTEP vs. Air Force?
The model projects Air Force by 22.5.
What time is UTEP vs. Air Force and what channel is it on?
Fri, Nov 20, 8:00 PM ET, at Falcon Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →