@ South Alabama · Wk 3Win prob 62%Model -4.6Schedule & Results
NEBNebraskaL21-49✓Wk 2vs
JXSTJacksonville StateW29-27✓Wk 3@USASouth Alabama-4.662%Wk 4vsSTONStonehillWk 5@
KENTKent State-8.070%Wk 6vs
CMUCentral Michigan-12.178%Wk 7@
SACSacramento State+4.140%Wk 8vs
EMUEastern Michigan-8.069%Wk 10@
AKRAkron-0.752%Wk 11@
M-OHMiami (OH)-0.852%Wk 12vs
BALLBall State-19.590%Wk 13vs
TOLToledo-4.260%Team Leaders
Nick PoulosPassing180 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
Duncan BruneRushing98 yds · 0 TD · 3.6 avg
Riley NeerReceiving10 rec · 142 yds · 2 TD
Jack FriesTackles19 tackles · 0.5 TFL · 0 sacks
Latest on Ohio
All news →Jacksonville State's pass defense is Ohio's problem
Anthony Colandrea produced eight of Nebraska's twelve explosive plays
Nebraska's rush defense is Ohio's one real opening
Roster · 105 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Hype Grand | QB | FR | 6'0" | 185 | La Puente, CA |
| 7 | Levi Davis | QB | FR | 6'0" | 192 | Lewis Center, OH |
| 8 | Nick Poulos | QB | SR | 6'6" | 243 | — |
| 9 | Matt Vezza | QB | JR | 6'0" | 198 | Elmhurst, IL |
| 16 | Matthew Papas | QB | SO | 5'11" | 192 | — |
| 4 | Victor Rosa | RB | SR | 5'11" | 208 | Bristol, CT |
| 6 | Duncan Brune | RB | JR | 5'11" | 218 | Cologne |
| 22 | Mike Taylor Jr. | RB | FR | 5'10" | 204 | Pickerington, OH |
| 23 | James Kelly | RB | FR | 6'0" | 205 | Trussville, AL |
| 24 | Irving Brown | RB | FR | 5'11" | 220 | Teachey, NC |
| 0 | Delaney Crawford | WR | SR | 6'2" | 202 | Corona, CA |
| 2 | Preston Bowman | WR | FR | 5'11" | 207 | Pickerington, OH |
| 3 | Dom Dorwart | WR | SO | 6'2" | 208 | Leonardtown, MD |
| 10 | Ian Ver Steeg | WR | SR | 5'10" | 184 | Severn, MD |
| 11 | Zach Hackleman | WR | FR | 6'2" | 185 | Cleveland, OH |
| 12 | Eian Pugh | WR | SR | 6'3" | 182 | Naperville, IL |
| 13 | Rashad Perry | WR | FR | 5'11" | 160 | Fresno, CA |
| 14 | Marcus Cain | WR | FR | 6'2" | 204 | Batavia, OH |
| 15 | Riley Neer | WR | SO | 5'11" | 190 | Bellefontaine, OH |
| 17 | Blake Parker | WR | FR | 6'2" | 180 | Sandusky, OH |
| 18 | Miles Cremascoli | WR | SO | 6'3" | 213 | Winnetka, IL |
| 31 | Khamani Debrow | WR | JR | 6'3" | 206 | — |
| 37 | Blake Guffey | WR | SR | 6'1" | 221 | Glouster, OH |
| 80 | Kaden Page | WR | FR | 6'3" | 195 | Wapakoneta, OH |
| 81 | MC Walker II | WR | FR | 5'11" | 180 | Columbus, OH |
| 33 | Jake Furtney | TE | SO | 6'4" | 242 | St. Charles, IL |
| 44 | Aiden Lowery | TE | SO | 6'3" | 238 | — |
| 84 | AJ Miller | TE | SO | 6'4" | 239 | Pickerington, OH |
| 85 | Riley Palmeter | TE | SR | 6'4" | 230 | Edinburgh, IN |
| 86 | Andrew Metzger | TE | SO | 6'4" | 246 | Aurora, CO |
| 87 | Tim Boals | TE | FR | 6'4" | 235 | Sandusky, OH |
| 88 | Calvin Moody | TE | FR | 6'5" | 230 | Noblesville, IN |
| 51 | Job Mavrick | OL | FR | 6'2" | 291 | Westfield, IN |
| 53 | Lance Blakely Jr. | OL | FR | 6'4" | 270 | Columbus, OH |
| 54 | Will Odenthal | OL | FR | 6'5" | 300 | Nelsonville, OH |
| 55 | CJ Dawson II | OL | SR | 6'2" | 327 | Green, OH |
| 56 | Ben Maldonado | OL | SR | 6'4" | 291 | Miami, FL |
| 60 | Colton Crosley | OL | FR | 6'3" | 290 | Mayfield, OH |
| 63 | Seth Anstead | OL | SO | 6'4" | 300 | — |
| 65 | Josh Waite | OL | SR | 6'3" | 301 | Roaring Spring, PA |
| 66 | Mike Montgomery | OL | FR | 6'5" | 250 | West Branch, IA |
| 70 | Joshua Johnson | OL | SR | 6'2" | 311 | Westerville, OH |
| 71 | Cassius Hulbert | OL | SR | 6'3" | 310 | Edon, OH |
| 72 | Sandro Malicevic | OL | SR | 6'5" | 332 | Saratoga, CA |
| 74 | Tigana Cisse | OL | SR | 6'3" | 305 | Oakland, CA |
| 75 | Jarian Shelby | OL | SR | 6'3" | 290 | Luling, LA |
| 76 | Bryce Parson | OL | SO | 6'2" | 296 | St. Louis, MO |
| 77 | Trumain Lawson | OL | FR | 6'5" | 278 | Clifton, NJ |
| 78 | Danny Fortson | OL | FR | 6'5" | 265 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 14 | Ike Ackerman | DE | FR | 6'4" | 249 | Omaha, NE |
| 23 | Joseph Marsh | DE | JR | 6'3" | 232 | Simi Valley, CA |
| 34 | Troy Stiggers | DE | FR | 6'3" | 240 | Lithonia, GA |
| 50 | Owen DiFranco | DE | JR | 6'4" | 258 | Glen Ellyn, IL |
| 96 | Tyler Stearman | DE | FR | 6'4" | 210 | Loveland, OH |
| 0 | Nehemiah Dukes | DL | SR | 6'1" | 288 | Douglasville, GA |
| 9 | Tyler Gillison | DL | SR | 6'2" | 252 | Pickerington, OH |
| 11 | Evan Herrmann | DL | JR | 6'5" | 245 | Sussex, WI |
| 51 | Isaiah Street | DL | SR | 6'3" | 236 | Brownsburg, IN |
| 99 | Ty Neubert | DL | FR | 6'3" | 278 | Columbus, OH |
| 10 | Drayden Pavey | DT | FR | 6'1" | 276 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 44 | Austin Adkins | DT | FR | 6'3" | 270 | Strongsville, OH |
| 57 | Nathan Hale | DT | SR | 6'4" | 259 | — |
| 92 | RJ Keuchler | DT | JR | 6'3" | 255 | — |
| 94 | Brandon Weaver | DT | FR | 6'3" | 269 | Columbus, OH |
| 97 | Austin Mitchell | DT | JR | 6'2" | 274 | Avon, OH |
| 98 | Derek Reagans | DT | SR | 6'0" | 279 | San Francisco, CA |
| 12 | Jermaine Minnis | LB | FR | 6'2" | 204 | Hyattsville, MD |
| 15 | William Marzolf | LB | SO | 6'1" | 220 | Orlando, FL |
| 25 | Michael Molnar | LB | SR | 6'3" | 227 | Mason, OH |
| 27 | Jack Fries | LB | SR | 6'2" | 222 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 30 | Charlie Christopher | LB | SO | 6'0" | 227 | Uniontown, OH |
| 32 | Alex Brown | LB | FR | 6'2" | 220 | Mason, OH |
| 35 | Mac Capen | LB | FR | 6'3" | 207 | Newfane, NY |
| 41 | Colin Wooldridge | LB | FR | 6'0" | 200 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 45 | Brady Wharton | LB | FR | 5'10" | 193 | Athens, OH |
| 52 | Nolan Ogburn | LB | FR | 6'2" | 235 | Kettering, OH |
| 56 | Cody Raymond | LB | SO | 6'3" | 231 | Shelby, MI |
| 6 | Tony Mathis | CB | JR | 5'11" | 176 | — |
| 19 | Bobby Miller | CB | FR | 6'4" | 177 | Orlando, FL |
| 20 | Kendall Bannister | CB | JR | 5'11" | 187 | Woodbridge, VA |
| 21 | Ronald Jackson Jr. | CB | SR | 6'1" | 203 | Detroit, MI |
| 24 | Cam Cope | CB | SR | 5'11" | 188 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 26 | Tyson Long | CB | FR | 6'0" | 184 | Pickerington, OH |
| 28 | Kindall Brown | CB | FR | 5'10" | 174 | Cleveland, OH |
| 29 | Jay Brewer III | CB | FR | 6'2" | 190 | Akron, OH |
| 49 | Xavier Williams | CB | SO | 5'10" | 156 | Akron, OH |
| 4 | Darren James-Hamilton | DB | SO | 5'10" | 187 | Charlotte, NC |
| 5 | KJ Sejour | DB | FR | 5'9" | 160 | Hollywood, FL |
| 7 | Eli Thompson | DB | JR | 5'10" | 183 | Rome, GA |
| 8 | Barry Dillon | DB | SO | 6'1" | 198 | Vicksburg, MS |
| 2 | DJ Walker | S | JR | 6'1" | 198 | Aliquippa, PA |
| 3 | JT Haskins | S | JR | 5'11" | 182 | — |
| 13 | DJ Morton | S | SO | 6'1" | 191 | — |
| 16 | Ryan Miller | S | FR | 6'1" | 230 | Columbus, OH |
| 17 | Caleb Chamberlin | S | SO | 6'1" | 199 | Palm Beach Gardens, FL |
| 18 | Andrew Vera | S | SR | 5'11" | 199 | Saint Clairsville, OH |
| 22 | Brandon Jenkins | S | FR | 5'10" | 189 | Chicago, IL |
| 36 | Malachi Taylor | S | FR | 6'0" | 190 | Columbus, OH |
| 43 | Brack Peacock | PK | JR | 5'7" | 165 | Granbury, TX |
| 47 | Will Hryszko | PK | SR | 5'10" | 187 | Strongsville, OH |
| 93 | Owen Schaadt | PK | FR | 6'0" | 190 | West Chester, PA |
| 42 | Magnus Haines | P | SR | 6'0" | 193 | Massillon, OH |
| 90 | Kolten Bartels | P | FR | 5'10" | 195 | Richmond, MI |
| 46 | Nick Hemer | LS | SR | 6'4" | 205 | Pittsburgh, PA |
| 83 | Ethan Najm | LS | FR | 5'10" | 195 | Murfreesboro, TN |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Ohio is in year 1 under John Hauser. The strengths are offensive, led by 14th at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 105th at keeping everything in front of them.
Ohio has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#14projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#26projected
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#32projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#105projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 9 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 9 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 3.28#43
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 0.94 / 0.30
- Power / stuff (off)
- 90.9% / 9.9%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 15.0%#82
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 9.5% / 5.4%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | -0.06#105 | 0.03#105 | 0.50#72 |
| Defense | 0.10#107 | 0.48#127 | 1.02#136 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 46 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.0820th
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.374th
- Offense success rate37%19th
- Defense success rate allowed49%5th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs46%38th
- Offense success — passing downs21%10th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs47%33rd
- Defense success allowed — passing downs54%1st
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.230th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.418th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.169th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.21st
Trenches
- Offense line yards3.373rd
- Defense line yards allowed3.216th
- Offense highlight yards0.326th
- Defense highlight yards allowed1.132nd
- Offense power success0.9491st
- Defense power success allowed0.7733rd
- Offense stuff rate0.1185th
- Defense stuff rate0.2144th
Third down
- Third down conversion50%77th
- Third down distance faced6.275th
- Third down conversion allowed60%1st
- Third down distance forced5.77th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half-0.1110th
- Net success rate — second half-0.1011th
Drives
- Points per drive2.048th
- Points per drive allowed3.321st
- Average starting field position3997th
- Opponent starting field position387th
- Available yards gained38%26th
- Available yards allowed69%12th
- Scoring opportunities per drive90%74th
- Scoring opportunities allowed80%51st
- Points per scoring opportunity2.235th
- Points allowed per opportunity4.215th
- Three-and-out rate20%64th
- Three-and-outs forced12%18th
CORE
- CORE offense-2.124th
- CORE defense10.91st
- CORE overall-12.95th
Roster
- Returning usage83%93rd
- Returning EPA20679th
- Team talent composite5237th
- Recruiting class rank10723rd
- Recruiting class points17523rd
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Rush efficiency edge: 0.146 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes evenly from front and secondary.
Season Signature
1-1 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 20 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 44.9%
- Expected, given the spots
- 53.0%
- Over expected
- -8.1
- Fourth down vs peers
- -5
- Fourth down vs the model
- -43
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Ohio is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Ohio in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 50% | 0.3 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 9-4 | 6-2 | 69% | 8.6 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 11-3 | 8-1 | 79% | 10.3 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 10-3 | 6-2 | 77% | 9.2 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 10-4 | 7-2 | 71% | 7.4 | +2.6 |
| 2021 | 3-9 | 3-5 | 25% | 4.2 | -1.2 |
| 2020 | 2-1 | 2-1 | 67% | 1.9 | +0.1 |
| 2019 | 7-6 | 5-3 | 54% | 7.7 | -0.7 |
| 2018 | 9-4 | 6-2 | 69% | 8.7 | +0.3 |
| 2017 | 9-4 | 5-3 | 69% | 10.0 | -1.0 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
1-1 so far, projected to finish 7.8-4.4. Wins the Mid-American in 9.4%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count.
Win out and it is 15%. One bid goes to the best champion outside the four power leagues, so running the table only enters them into that argument.
down 0.3 points since preseason — lost 21-49 to Nebraska against an expected margin of −24, so −4.5 against the number.
- At 1 loss they are 15% where the average Mid-American team is 39%.
- The Mid-American takes 0.07 bids in an average season.
- One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 0.3% of seasons, having won their league in 100% of those.
Ohio’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk11at Miami (OH)0.7
- wk3at South Alabama0.6
- wk13vs Toledo0.6
- wk10at Akron0.4
- wk6vs Central Michigan0.4
- wk8vs Eastern Michigan0.4
Who to root for
Games Ohio is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk6Ohio State over Maryland0.2
- wk7Kent State over South Florida0.2
- wk5Samford over UAB0.2
- wk10Rice over North Texas0.2
- wk11Florida Atlantic over Tulsa0.2
- wk3Oklahoma over New Mexico0.2
Mid-American
0-0 in league play, projected 5.3-2.74 of 13 by title oddsThe Mid-American sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 46% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk13Toledo at Ohio14.1
- wk11Ohio at Miami (OH)13.3
- wk6Central Michigan at Ohio10.0
- wk8Eastern Michigan at Ohio9.5
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Mid-American race →
If not the playoff, then
Ohio is 1-1 and needs 5 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 2.4% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.
- GameAbove Sports Bowl16%
- Boca Raton Bowl11%
- Arizona Bowl11%
- Cure Bowl9.4%
- Myrtle Beach Bowl9.2%
- Famous Idaho Potato Bowl9.1%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 5 have sent Ohio a player since 2010 — 12 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Ohio's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.