#21Zak Wallace

RB·Arkansas State·2024

Zak Wallace is a Explosive Back for Arkansas State. Zak's 2024 season ranks in the 3th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 164 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Zak Wallace's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Rushing

721 Rush yards11 Rush TD154 Carries4.7 Yards/carry

Receiving

14 Receptions96 Rec yards0 Rec TD6.9 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs RB peers

Efficiency3
Volume51
Explosiveness34
Consistency49
Receiving30

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)3th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency49th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.44 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.65 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs UL Monroe (SP+ -17).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsCentral Arkansas	W34-31	—	15	41	2.7	2	1	1	0	0.04
2	vsTulsa	W28-24	-20.6	16	78	4.9	0	—	—	—	0.16
3	@Michigan	L18-28	10.6	3	5	1.7	0	1	6	0	-0.35
4	@Iowa State	L7-52	10.3	6	10	1.7	0	—	—	—	-0.01
6	vsSouth Alabama	W18-16	2.8	11	30	2.7	0	4	23	0	-0.14
7	@Texas State	L9-41	5.4	6	15	2.5	0	—	—	—	0.09
8	@Southern Miss	W44-28	-25.6	14	47	3.4	0	2	10	0	0.13
9	vsTroy	W34-31	-6.6	16	64	4.0	3	2	46	0	0.35
11	@Louisiana	L19-55	4.8	5	51	10.2	1	3	11	0	0.62
12	@Georgia State	W27-20	-17.9	14	62	4.4	2	—	—	—	0.27
13	vsUL Monroe	W28-21	-16.7	18	130	7.2	1	1	-1	0	0.65
14	vsOld Dominion	L32-40	-6.0	15	89	5.9	1	—	—	—	0.13
20	vsBowling Green	W38-31	-1.8	15	99	6.6	1	—	—	—	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

18.0%

Passing plays

3.0%

Rushing plays

33.9%

Standard downs

22.3%

Passing downs

8.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.22
Passing downs: 0.26
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.06 / 0.24

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).