#12Wesley Kennedy III

RB·Georgia Southern·20192.9 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Wesley Kennedy III is a Pass-Catching Back for Georgia Southern. Wesley's 2019 season ranks in the 88th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 132 plays — a above-average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Wesley Kennedy III's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2019 Production

Rushing

864 Rush yards11 Rush TD119 Carries7.3 Yards/carry

Receiving

10 Receptions92 Rec yards0 Rec TD9.2 Yards/rec

Returns

8 Kick returns191 KR yards0 KR TD6 Punt returns92 PR yards1 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs RB peers

Efficiency88
Volume62
Explosiveness86
Consistency71
Receiving81

Player type

Pass-Catching Back

Third-down weapon out of the backfield. Routes, hands, and separation in coverage define this role as much as rushing.

3rd-down backReceiving threatPass protection

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)88th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency71th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the RB position (88th percentile).
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.46 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.48 EPA/play in Wk 9 vs New Mexico State (SP+ -22).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	2019	216	0.490	5.0	105.8
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
Nick Wilson	Arizona	2014	250	0.410	5.2	102.5
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2015	228	0.450	5.8	102.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
6	@South Alabama	W20-17	-20.3	8	52	6.5	1	1	24	0	0.69
8	vsCoastal Carolina	W30-27	-12.8	24	117	4.9	2	2	16	0	0.19
9	vsNew Mexico State	W41-7	-22.0	6	143	23.8	2	1	9	0	1.48
10	@App State	W24-21	11.3	13	145	11.2	2	—	—	—	0.74
11	@Troy	L28-49	-4.4	10	75	7.5	1	—	—	—	0.16
12	vsUL Monroe	W51-29	-10.7	19	76	4.0	1	2	21	0	0.19
13	@Arkansas State	L33-38	-2.9	19	74	3.9	0	1	2	0	-0.25
14	vsGeorgia State	W38-10	-10.5	11	78	7.1	1	—	—	—	0.47
1	vsLiberty	L16-23	-2.6	9	104	11.6	1	3	20	0	0.84

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

21.8%

Passing plays

9.7%

Rushing plays

25.8%

Standard downs

22.3%

Passing downs

20.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.28
Passing downs: 0.55
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.27 / 0.37

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 · 9 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.