#22Tyjae Spears

RB·Tulane·2022 20213.2 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Tyjae Spears is a 2-year Explosive Back for Tulane. Tyjae's 2021 season ranks in the 83th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 132 plays — a above-average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Tyjae Spears's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2021 Production

Rushing

863 Rush yards9 Rush TD129 Carries6.7 Yards/carry

Receiving

19 Receptions145 Rec yards0 Rec TD7.6 Yards/rec

Returns

2 Kick returns36 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2021 · vs RB peers

Efficiency83
Volume59
Explosiveness74
Consistency48
Receiving52

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)83th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency48th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the RB position (83th percentile).
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.15 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 2.58 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Morgan State.

NIL Market Tier· 2021

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	2019	216	0.490	5.0	105.8
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
Devon Johnson	Marshall	2014	208	0.520	6.0	108.2
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2015	228	0.450	5.8	102.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@Oklahoma	L35-40	16.8	6	20	3.3	0	3	6	0	-0.09
2	vsMorgan State	W69-20	—	1	6	6.0	1	1	44	0	2.58
3	@Ole Miss	L21-61	14.8	6	15	2.5	0	—	—	—	-0.35
4	vsUAB	L21-28	9.1	2	8	4.0	0	1	4	0	—
5	@East Carolina	L29-52	0.5	4	2	0.5	0	2	13	0	-0.43
6	vsHouston	L22-40	10.9	5	65	13.0	1	1	-1	0	0.96
8	@SMU	L26-55	8.9	14	85	6.1	1	—	—	—	0.30
9	vsCincinnati	L12-31	21.2	19	106	5.6	1	1	17	0	0.41
10	@UCF	L10-14	4.8	15	77	5.1	1	5	35	0	0.32
11	vsTulsa	L13-20	5.8	14	104	7.4	0	3	13	0	0.04
12	vsSouth Florida	W45-14	-12.1	13	111	8.5	2	1	7	0	0.54
13	@Memphis	L28-33	1.0	30	264	8.8	2	1	7	0	0.69

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

20.5%

Passing plays

5.9%

Rushing plays

34.5%

Standard downs

20.1%

Passing downs

21.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.36
Passing downs: 0.39
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.10 / 0.42

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2021 — 2022 · 25 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2021	Tulane	3.2	0.440	—	57.2
2022	Tulane	5.7	0.450	+0.01	105.3

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.