#9Star Thomas

RB·New Mexico State·2023

Star Thomas is a Explosive Back for New Mexico State. Star's 2023 season ranks in the 65th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 131 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Star Thomas's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Rushing

653 Rush yards4 Rush TD112 Carries5.8 Yards/carry

Receiving

22 Receptions200 Rec yards2 Rec TD9.1 Yards/rec

Returns

3 Kick returns47 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs RB peers

Efficiency65
Volume41
Explosiveness56
Consistency66
Receiving61

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)65th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency66th %ile · average

Key findings

▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.30 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.85 EPA/play in Wk 12 vs Auburn (SP+ 8).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	2019	216	0.490	5.0	105.8
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
0	vsMassachusetts	L30-41	-17.5	8	42	5.3	0	2	20	0	—
1	vsWestern Illinois	W58-21	—	12	96	8.0	2	3	32	0	0.55
2	@Liberty	L17-33	8.0	4	3	0.8	0	2	26	0	-0.07
3	@New Mexico	W27-17	-16.5	10	54	5.4	1	—	—	—	0.32
4	@Hawai'i	L17-20	-16.4	9	38	4.2	0	4	35	1	0.15
6	vsFlorida International	W34-17	-21.2	8	25	3.1	1	2	17	0	0.24
7	vsSam Houston	W27-13	-13.8	9	21	2.3	0	—	—	—	-0.39
8	@UTEP	W28-7	-16.2	7	42	6.0	0	—	—	—	0.26
9	@Louisiana Tech	W27-24	-12.9	10	88	8.8	0	2	17	0	0.56
10	vsMiddle Tennessee	W13-7	-9.5	4	21	5.3	0	1	13	0	0.60
11	@Western Kentucky	W38-29	-2.0	7	85	12.1	0	—	—	—	0.50
12	@Auburn	W31-10	7.6	7	67	9.6	0	1	17	1	0.85
13	vsJacksonville State	W20-17	-1.6	8	22	2.8	0	3	23	0	-0.01
14	@Liberty	L35-49	8.0	8	39	4.9	0	1	-6	0	0.09
20	vsFresno State	L10-37	2.5	1	10	10.0	0	1	6	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

14.5%

Passing plays

4.9%

Rushing plays

22.4%

Standard downs

16.5%

Passing downs

9.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.13
Passing downs: 1.21
Pass / Rush EPA: 1.14 / 0.19

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).