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Samaje Perine

#32Samaje Perine

RB·Oklahoma·2016201520143.0 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Samaje Perine is a 3-year Featured Back for Oklahoma. Samaje's 2016 season ranks in the 45th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 206 plays — a average rate for the RB. Production has trended downward season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.52
    Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.41
    Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Samaje Perine's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

Recruiting Profile· Class of 2014

4-Star · High major target
Stars
247 composite
0.9070
National rank
#249
High school
Hendrickson
Hometown
Pflugerville, TX

Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.

2016 Production

Rushing
1060 Rush yards12 Rush TD196 Carries5.4 Yards/carry
Receiving
10 Receptions106 Rec yards1 Rec TD10.6 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs RB peers

  • Efficiency45
  • Volume80
  • Explosiveness48
  • Consistency74
  • Receiving25
Player type
Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)45th %ile · average
Game-to-game consistency74th %ile · average
Career trajectory:↓ Declining
Key findings
  • Production has slipped season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.
  • High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
  • 3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
  • Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
  • Peak game: 0.82 EPA/play in Wk 7 vs Kansas State (SP+ 8).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

PlayerTeamWEPA/playLine valTotal EPA
Saquon BarkleyPenn State0.3403.997.9
Travis EtienneClemson0.4704.7100.1
James FlandersTulsa0.3904.9103.7
Saquon BarkleyPenn State0.4105.298.4
Dalvin CookFlorida State0.3404.399.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+0.8200.82Wk 1 vs Houston: +0.45 EPA/play1Wk 2 vs UL Monroe: +0.70 EPA/play2Wk 3 vs Ohio State: -0.17 EPA/play3Wk 5 vs TCU: +0.36 EPA/play5Wk 6 vs Texas: +0.27 EPA/play6Wk 7 vs Kansas State: +0.82 EPA/play7Wk 11 vs Baylor: +0.18 EPA/play11Wk 12 vs West Virginia: +0.17 EPA/play12Wk 14 vs Oklahoma State: +0.14 EPA/play14Wk 1 vs Auburn: +0.20 EPA/play1
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+CarRush YdsAvgRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDEPA/play
1vsHoustonL23-3310.16315.2032800.45
2vsUL MonroeW59-17-21.310585.8223800.70
3vsOhio StateL24-4522.417603.50-0.17
5@TCUW52-4611.017985.822300.36
6vsTexasW45-4010.6352146.120.27
7vsKansas StateW38-178.23144.7012510.82
11vsBaylorW45-2411.3231004.321300.18
12@West VirginiaW56-2811.3311605.221900.17
14vsOklahoma StateW38-2016.4372396.510.14
1vsAuburnW35-1915.317865.110.20

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
28.0%
Passing plays
3.8%
Rushing plays
44.6%
Standard downs
31.9%
Passing downs
16.2%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
0.21
Passing downs
0.41
Pass / Rush EPA
0.85 / 0.20

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg
+1.070−0.4520152016
EPA per play · 2014 — 2016 · 36 games
SeasonTeamLine valueTotal EPA
2014Oklahoma
6.8
121.3
2015Oklahoma
3.7
76.8
2016Oklahoma
3.0
70.7

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.