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Jonathan Taylor

#23Jonathan Taylor

RB·Wisconsin·2019201820175.0 pts line value1st Round

Jonathan Taylor is a 3-year Featured Back for Wisconsin. Jonathan's 2018 season ranks in the 50th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 299 plays — a average rate for the RB. Jonathan's production has improved each season, a positive development trajectory.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.52
    Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.41
    Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jonathan Taylor's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

Recruiting Profile· Class of 2017

3-Star · Developmental
Stars
247 composite
0.8884
National rank
#369
High school
Salem
Hometown
Salem, NJ

Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.

2018 Production

Rushing
2194 Rush yards16 Rush TD307 Carries7.1 Yards/carry
Receiving
8 Receptions60 Rec yards0 Rec TD7.5 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs RB peers

  • Efficiency50
  • Volume100
  • Explosiveness82
  • Consistency72
  • Receiving22
Player type
Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)50th %ile · average
Game-to-game consistency72th %ile · average
Career trajectory:↑ Rising
Key findings
  • High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
  • Career trajectory is upward — WEPA value has improved season over season.
  • High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
  • 4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
  • Peak game: 0.52 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs Nebraska (SP+ 5).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

PlayerTeamWEPA/playLine valTotal EPA
Blake CorumMichigan0.3805.1107.5
Breece HallIowa State0.3404.5102.3
Hassan HaskinsMichigan0.3804.8106.4
Royce FreemanOregon0.3605.199.0
Mohamed IbrahimMinnesota0.3305.3103.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+0.5200.52Wk 1 vs Western Kentucky: +0.15 EPA/play1Wk 2 vs New Mexico: +0.41 EPA/play2Wk 3 vs BYU: -0.03 EPA/play3Wk 4 vs Iowa: -0.06 EPA/play4Wk 6 vs Nebraska: +0.52 EPA/play6Wk 7 vs Michigan: +0.31 EPA/play7Wk 8 vs Illinois: +0.10 EPA/play8Wk 9 vs Northwestern: -0.10 EPA/play9Wk 10 vs Rutgers: +0.42 EPA/play10Wk 12 vs Purdue: +0.51 EPA/play12Wk 13 vs Minnesota: +0.22 EPA/play13Wk 1 vs Miami: +0.21 EPA/play1
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+CarRush YdsAvgRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDEPA/play
1vsWestern KentuckyW34-3-16.1181458.120.15
2vsNew MexicoW45-14-9.5332537.730.41
3vsBYUL21-246.2261174.503140-0.03
4@IowaW28-1713.3251134.50260-0.06
6vsNebraskaW41-245.4242219.230.52
7@MichiganL13-3822.0171015.900.31
8vsIllinoisW49-20-7.9271595.901200.10
9@NorthwesternL17-311.911464.20-0.10
10vsRutgersW31-17-12.3272087.7313000.42
11@Penn StateL10-2219.0201859.31
12@PurdueW47-446.5333219.730.51
13vsMinnesotaL15-376.3191206.301800.22
1vsMiamiW35-312.7272057.610.21

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
36.3%
Passing plays
4.3%
Rushing plays
55.5%
Standard downs
44.7%
Passing downs
11.2%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
0.25
Passing downs
0.17
Pass / Rush EPA
-0.15 / 0.26

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg
+0.940−0.3520182019
EPA per play · 2017 — 2019 · 40 games
SeasonTeamLine valueTotal EPA
2017Wisconsin
4.8
107.4
2018Wisconsin
5.0
106.9
2019Wisconsin
6.8
142.0

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.