#34Larry Rountree III

RB·Missouri·2020 20181.9 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Larry Rountree III is a 2-year Explosive Back for Missouri. Larry's 2018 season ranks in the 3th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 210 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Larry Rountree III's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2018 Production

Rushing

1216 Rush yards11 Rush TD225 Carries5.4 Yards/carry

Receiving

14 Receptions62 Rec yards0 Rec TD4.4 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs RB peers

Efficiency3
Volume67
Explosiveness48
Consistency47
Receiving29

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)3th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency47th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸Peak game: 0.80 EPA/play in Wk 8 vs Memphis (SP+ 9).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsUT Martin	W51-14	—	14	58	4.1	1	1	-4	0	0.17
2	vsWyoming	W40-13	1.9	10	34	3.4	0	—	—	—	-0.31
3	@Purdue	W40-37	6.5	23	168	7.3	0	1	8	0	0.36
4	vsGeorgia	L29-43	32.9	8	33	4.1	1	1	2	0	0.06
6	@South Carolina	L35-37	14.9	13	90	6.9	2	—	—	—	0.45
7	@Alabama	L10-39	36.3	17	48	2.8	0	2	13	0	-0.07
8	vsMemphis	W65-33	9.2	9	118	13.1	3	—	—	—	0.80
9	vsKentucky	L14-15	13.1	14	45	3.2	1	—	—	—	0.02
10	@Florida	W38-17	23.0	14	72	5.1	1	4	10	0	0.07
11	vsVanderbilt	W33-28	7.6	21	92	4.4	0	1	2	0	0.06
12	@Tennessee	W50-17	5.5	26	135	5.2	1	1	18	0	0.23
13	vsArkansas	W38-0	4.5	29	119	4.1	0	2	10	0	-0.14
1	vsOklahoma State	L33-38	13.8	27	204	7.6	1	1	3	0	0.34

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

23.4%

Passing plays

3.7%

Rushing plays

41.0%

Standard downs

27.1%

Passing downs

14.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.19
Passing downs: 0.13
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.07 / 0.19

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2018 — 2020 · 23 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2018	Missouri	1.9	0.250	—	55.2
2020	Missouri	2.0	0.250	—	54.8

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.