#7Kavon Simmons

WR·Duke·2026

Kavon Simmons is a Vertical Threat WR for Duke.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Kavon Simmons's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2026 Production

Receiving

1 Receptions22 Rec yards0 Rec TD22.0 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2026 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume6
Explosiveness100
Consistency50
Pass-Down100

Player type

Vertical Threat WR

Elite deep receiver who stretches the field. Wins downfield, commands safety attention, and creates the threat that opens underneath routes.

Downfield threatYAC upsideCreates space for teammates

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.

NIL Market Tier· 2026

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Tyler Buchner	Notre Dame	2021	51	0.250	0.3	12.8
Keytaon Thompson	Virginia	2020	39	0.320	0.4	12.5
Brandon Chatman	Navy	2025	52	0.230	0.6	12.0
Nick Nash	San José State	2021	45	0.310	0.5	14.0
Samajie Grant	Arizona	2016	62	0.250	0.3	15.5

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
2	@Illinois	W31-27	7.5	1	22	22.0	0	22	0.65

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

2.2%

Passing plays

6.3%

Rushing plays

0.0%

Standard downs

1.1%

Passing downs

4.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: -0.54
Passing downs: 0.65
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.25 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).