Keytaon Thompson is a 3-year Red Zone Weapon WR for Virginia. Keytaon's 2020 season ranks in the 75th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 51 plays — a above-average rate for the WR. Production has trended downward season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.
What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025
How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.
- Usage share (volume)0.47Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
- EPA per play (efficiency)0.09Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
- Total EPA (value)0.45Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons
Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Keytaon Thompson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.
Recruiting Profile· Class of 2017
- Stars
- ★★★★★
- 247 composite
- 0.9289
- National rank
- #169
- High school
- Landry-Walker
- Hometown
- New Orleans, LA
Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.
2020 Production
Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs WR peers
- Efficiency75
- Volume25
- Explosiveness47
- Consistency32
- Pass-Down0
Goes from good to great inside the 20 — high TD conversion on limited looks makes this receiver a scoring machine.
- ▸Above-average efficiency for the WR position (75th percentile).
- ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
- ▸Production has slipped season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.
- ▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
- ▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.11 from the first to second half of the season.
- ▸Peak game: 1.46 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs Clemson (SP+ 26).
Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.42
- Passing downs
- 0.05
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.54 / 0.28
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).
Career · rolling EPA, game by game
Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.