#10Tyler Buchner
Tyler Buchner is a Versatile WR for Notre Dame. Tyler's 2021 season ranks in the 50th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 60 plays — a average rate for the WR. A four-star recruit in the class of 2021, Tyler has shown flashes of the talent that made him a coveted recruit.
What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025
How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.
- Usage share (volume)0.47Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
- EPA per play (efficiency)0.09Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
- Total EPA (value)0.45Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons
Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Tyler Buchner's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.
Recruiting Profile· Class of 2021
- Stars
- ★★★★★
- 247 composite
- 0.9684
- National rank
- #71
- High school
- Helix
- Hometown
- La Jolla, CA
Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.
2021 Production
Performance Analysis · 2021 · vs WR peers
- Efficiency50
- Volume34
- Explosiveness100
- Consistency63
- Pass-Down0
Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.
- ▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.20 from the first to second half of the season.
- ▸Peak game: 1.63 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs Navy (SP+ -9).
NIL Market Tier· 2021
On3 valuation ↗Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · EPA per play, week by week
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.64
- Passing downs
- -0.17
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.49 / 0.36
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).
Career · rolling EPA, game by game
Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.